One Nation candidate Luke Herdegen has won the Secret Harbour state byelection in Western Australia, securing 57 percent of the vote after preferences were distributed. The result marks a notable electoral milestone for Pauline Hanson’s party in a metropolitan Perth seat and is likely to intensify debate about the fragmentation of the conservative vote in Western Australian state politics.
The byelection was triggered by a vacancy in the Legislative Assembly district of Secret Harbour, a growing coastal electorate south of Perth. Herdegen’s victory, confirmed after the distribution of preferences, gives One Nation its first foothold in the Western Australian Parliament through a direct electoral contest, rather than a defection or party switch. The party has previously held representation in the state only briefly and through unusual political circumstances.
Former federal Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce, who has been a vocal advocate for cooperation among conservative parties, responded to the result by declaring that “politics has changed.” Joyce has repeatedly warned that the centre-right vote in Australia is being split between the Liberal Party, the Nationals, and minor conservative movements, including One Nation, leaving those parties vulnerable to defeat in contests where preferences do not flow as expected.
The Secret Harbour outcome arrives at a sensitive moment for both major conservative parties in Western Australia. The Liberal Party, which has struggled to recover ground after its 2025 federal election loss, faces renewed internal questions about its capacity to hold seats in outer-metropolitan and peri-urban regions, where cost-of-living concerns, housing affordability, and infrastructure pressures have reshaped voter sentiment. The Nationals, who have a smaller organisational presence in metropolitan Perth, appear to have played a limited role in the contest, raising questions about fielding arrangements and preference negotiations.
Analysis: One Nation’s ability to convert preferences into a clear majority in a byelection suggests the party has built durable vote-share infrastructure in parts of the Perth metropolitan fringe. Byelections typically suppress turnout among casual voters, and a 57 percent two-party-preferred figure after distribution indicates Herdegen performed strongly across both his own primary support and the flow of preferences from eliminated candidates. The result is likely to embolden the party’s organisational strategy of targeting specific outer-metropolitan seats rather than competing across the entire state.
The win also carries implications for the Cook Labor government, which currently holds office in Western Australia. While a single byelection does not alter the government’s parliamentary numbers, the geographic and demographic profile of Secret Harbour makes it a useful bellwether for the kind of suburban and coastal communities that have drifted away from both Labor and the Liberal Party in recent cycles. Analysts will be watching whether the patterns observed in Secret Harbour repeat in nearby seats at the next general election.
Background and Context
One Nation, founded by Pauline Hanson in 1997, has historically performed strongest in regional Queensland and in rural and regional New South Wales. Its electoral penetration in Western Australia has been more uneven, with the party struggling at times to meet registration thresholds and to build consistent local campaign operations. The Secret Harbour result suggests that targeted investment in candidate selection, on-the-ground campaigning, and preference arrangements can yield returns even in electorates that do not match the party’s traditional demographic base.
Secret Harbour itself is a relatively young suburb, developed substantially from the 1990s onward, and is characterised by family households, a high proportion of mortgage holders, and a workforce heavily exposed to the construction, retail, and defence-support sectors. Rapid population increase has outpaced some infrastructure delivery, including public transport, schools, and health services, issues that featured prominently in pre-election commentary in the region.
Joyce’s intervention reflects a broader national conversation about whether the Liberal-National coalition framework remains fit for purpose in an environment where One Nation can attract more than 15 to 20 percent of the primary vote in particular contests. Some figures within the conservative movement have urged formal coalition arrangements or preference agreements to prevent Labor victories, while others argue that such deals risk alienating base voters and diluting policy distinctiveness. The Secret Harbour result adds empirical weight to the argument that the conservative vote is structurally divided.
Analysis: From a party-management standpoint, the result hands Pauline Hanson a tangible win to cite when negotiating with potential coalition partners and when selecting candidates for upcoming state and federal contests. It also increases pressure on the WA Liberals to articulate a clearer economic and cultural platform aimed at outer-metropolitan voters, many of whom have shifted away from the party since the early 2020s. For the Nationals, the result raises harder structural questions about whether the party can retain relevance in seats where it does not hold the primary right-of-centre vote.
What to Watch Next
Several developments will help determine whether the Secret Harbour outcome represents a turning point or a one-off. First, attention will turn to whether One Nation fields competitive candidates in the next round of Western Australian byelections and at the next state general election, and whether the party can replicate its preference-flow performance elsewhere. Second, the Liberal Party’s internal response will be closely watched: leadership commentary, candidate selections, and any organisational overhaul will be read as signals of how the party intends to respond to the loss.
Third, the role of the Nationals in future preference negotiations will be a key indicator. Joyce’s public comment suggests the federal Nationals are alert to the strategic cost of three-way conservative contests, but the WA Nationals operate independently and may resist any formal accommodation with One Nation. Fourth, analysts will examine demographic breakdowns of the vote, including turnout, age cohorts, and suburb-level results, to assess whether the patterns observed in Secret Harbour are transferable.
Finally, the broader national implications will be tracked by both major parties. One Nation’s capacity to win a metropolitan Perth seat increases its bargaining position in preference negotiations in other states, particularly ahead of any federal early election scenario. The result also provides a data point for ongoing debates within the Liberal Party about coalition structure, candidate selection, and the party’s direction under its current leadership.
Conclusion
Luke Herdegen’s win in Secret Harbour delivers One Nation a measurable electoral success in a part of Australia where the party has historically struggled to convert support into seats. The 57 percent figure after preferences indicates a campaign that succeeded in consolidating non-Labor votes rather than simply riding a wave of protest. The reaction from senior conservative figures such as Barnaby Joyce underscores the extent to which the result has unsettled existing assumptions about how centre-right politics should be organised in Western Australia and beyond. Whether the win triggers a recalibration of conservative strategy or fades as a singular event will depend on the decisions taken by the Liberal Party, the Nationals, and One Nation itself in the months ahead.
Sources:
The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/aug/30/one-nation-claims-victory-on-secret-harbour-byelection-in-western-australia)
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Story synopsis gathered from: The Guardian World — source
