Iran’s Strategic Grip on the Strait of Hormuz: Geography, Military Power, and Global Energy Security

By Pallavi Bhatt

The Strait of Hormuz, a 21-nautical-mile chokepoint through which nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil flows, remains one of the most contested waterways in global geopolitics. A leading security analyst has now framed Iran’s dominance over the strait not as a temporary threat but as a long-standing reality—one rooted in geography, military capability, and Tehran’s asymmetric warfare doctrine. The assessment underscores how Iran’s control over the waterway could reshape energy markets, regional power dynamics, and Western security strategies in the coming years.

What Happened

Andreas Krieg, an associate professor at King’s College London and a specialist in Middle Eastern security, told Al Jazeera that Iran’s ability to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz is underpinned by both natural advantages and military infrastructure. The strait, flanked by Iranian territory on its northern shore, provides Tehran with a strategic vantage point to monitor—and potentially disrupt—maritime traffic.

Krieg highlighted Iran’s military assets in the region, including coastal missile batteries, fast-attack craft, and mine-laying capabilities, which he described as sufficient to enforce control if Iran chose to do so. While he did not suggest an imminent escalation, his remarks framed Iran’s position as a “spoil of war”—a phrase that implies Tehran’s dominance is not merely defensive but a calculated advantage in broader regional conflicts.

The timing of Krieg’s comments coincides with renewed diplomatic efforts to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), which could ease economic sanctions in exchange for restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program. If sanctions relief materializes, Iran’s strategic calculus in the strait may shift, though its military posture is unlikely to change dramatically in the near term.

Why It Matters

The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most critical oil transit route, with approximately 21 million barrels of crude passing through daily—roughly 20% of global supply. Any sustained disruption could send shockwaves through energy markets, driving up prices and destabilizing economies already grappling with inflation and supply chain vulnerabilities.

For Iran, the strait is both a shield and a sword. On one hand, its ability to threaten shipping acts as a deterrent against Western military action. On the other, it provides leverage in negotiations with the U.S. and its Gulf allies, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which rely on the waterway for their own oil exports.

Krieg’s characterization of the strait as a “spoil of war” suggests a more assertive Iranian posture than Western policymakers have previously acknowledged. While Tehran has never formally claimed sovereignty over the strait—international law recognizes it as an international waterway—its military exercises and rhetoric have long signaled its willingness to exploit the chokepoint for strategic gain.

Background and Context

The Strait of Hormuz has been a flashpoint since the 1980s, when Iran and Iraq engaged in the so-called “Tanker War” during their eight-year conflict. Iran’s use of mines and small-boat attacks to disrupt Iraqi oil shipments foreshadowed its current asymmetric warfare strategy.

Since then, Iran has invested heavily in anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities, designed to prevent adversaries—particularly the U.S. Navy—from operating freely in the Persian Gulf. Key components of this strategy include:
– Coastal missile batteries: Iran’s Bavar-373 and Sayyad missile systems, deployed along its southern coast, can target ships up to 300 kilometers away.
– Fast-attack craft: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) operates swarms of small, highly maneuverable boats, capable of harassing or disabling larger vessels.
– Mine warfare: Iran possesses an estimated 3,000–5,000 naval mines, which could be deployed rapidly to block shipping lanes.
– Submarine and drone capabilities: Iran’s Ghadir-class midget submarines and Shahed-136 drones add another layer of threat to maritime traffic.

The U.S. and its Gulf allies have responded with naval patrols, mine-clearing exercises, and missile defense systems (such as the UAE’s THAAD batteries). However, Iran’s asymmetric tactics make it difficult for conventional naval forces to counter its threats without risking escalation.

Competing Claims and Uncertainty

Krieg’s assessment is not universally shared. Some Western analysts argue that Iran’s control over the strait is overstated, pointing to:
1. International law constraints: The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) guarantees freedom of navigation in international straits, and any Iranian attempt to block shipping could trigger a military response from the U.S. and its allies.
2. Economic self-interest: Iran itself relies on the strait for its own oil exports. A prolonged blockade could backfire, cutting off its primary revenue stream.
3. Military limitations: While Iran’s A2/AD capabilities are formidable, they are not invincible. The U.S. Navy has demonstrated the ability to neutralize Iranian threats in past confrontations, such as the 2019 Gulf of Oman tanker attacks and the 2020 assassination of IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani.

However, Krieg’s argument aligns with a growing body of analysis suggesting that Iran’s asymmetric advantages—particularly its ability to disrupt rather than control the strait—give it outsized influence. Unlike a traditional naval power, Iran does not need to permanently close the strait to achieve its goals; even temporary disruptions could destabilize markets and force concessions.

What to Watch Next

Several key developments could shape the future of the Strait of Hormuz:
1. JCPOA negotiations: If the U.S. and Iran reach a new nuclear deal, sanctions relief could reduce Iran’s incentive to escalate in the strait. However, a breakdown in talks could increase tensions, leading to more aggressive Iranian posturing.
2. Regional military buildup: The UAE and Saudi Arabia have expanded their own missile defense and naval capabilities, potentially altering the balance of power. The UAE’s acquisition of F-35 fighter jets and Saudi Arabia’s investment in ballistic missile defense could complicate Iran’s calculations.
3. U.S. military posture: The Biden administration has reduced its naval presence in the Middle East compared to the Trump era, raising questions about America’s commitment to freedom of navigation in the strait. A future administration could reverse this trend, particularly if energy prices spike.
4. Iran’s domestic stability: Economic pressures, including inflation and unemployment, could push Iran toward more aggressive foreign policy moves to distract from internal challenges. Conversely, a moderate government in Tehran might seek to de-escalate tensions to attract foreign investment.
5. Alternative energy routes: The UAE and Saudi Arabia have accelerated plans for overland oil pipelines (such as the East-West Pipeline) to bypass the strait. If these projects succeed, they could reduce global reliance on Hormuz, diminishing Iran’s leverage.

Conclusion

Andreas Krieg’s assessment of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz reframes the waterway not as a passive chokepoint but as an active instrument of Iranian power. While Tehran’s ability to dominate the strait is constrained by international law and economic realities, its asymmetric military advantages ensure that it remains a critical player in global energy security.

For the U.S. and its allies, the challenge is twofold: deterring Iranian aggression while avoiding a conflict that could disrupt oil supplies and destabilize markets. For Iran, the strait is both a shield and a weapon—a means of protecting its interests while projecting power in a region where it has few other advantages.

The coming months will test whether diplomacy can reduce tensions or whether the Strait of Hormuz will remain a powder keg in an already volatile region. One thing is clear: as long as the world depends on oil flowing through its narrow waters, Iran’s grip on the strait will remain a defining feature of Middle Eastern geopolitics.

Sources:
– Al Jazeera News: [Krieg: Control of the Strait of Hormuz as spoils of war](https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/25/aje-onl-nf_krieg_control-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-spoils-of-war-250626w?traffic_source=rss)
– U.S. Energy Information Administration: [Strait of Hormuz oil transit data](https://www.eia.gov/)
– International Institute for Strategic Studies: [Iran’s military capabilities](https://www.iiss.org/)
– United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS): [Freedom of navigation provisions](https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf)

Story synopsis gathered from: Al Jazeera News — source