The Strait of Hormuz, a 21-mile-wide waterway that channels one-fifth of the world’s oil trade, remains one of the most contested chokepoints in global energy security. Iran’s ability to influence—or disrupt—shipping through the strait is not merely a function of military ambition but a calculated extension of its regional strategy, according to Andreas Krieg, a defense analyst and lecturer at King’s College London. In remarks to Al Jazeera, Krieg framed Iran’s control over the strait as a byproduct of its broader geopolitical positioning, where geographic advantage and asymmetric military tactics serve as tools to secure economic and political leverage amid ongoing regional conflicts.
What Happened
In a video segment published by Al Jazeera on June 25, Krieg stated that Iran possesses “sufficient geographic and military leverage” to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz. His assessment comes at a time of heightened tensions in the Middle East, including recent attacks on merchant vessels linked to Israel, escalating rhetoric between Iran and Western powers, and the ongoing fallout from U.S. sanctions on Tehran’s oil exports. Krieg’s analysis suggests that Iran’s influence over the strait is less about outright domination and more about exploiting its strategic position to extract concessions from adversaries—particularly the United States and its Gulf allies.
The Strait of Hormuz, which separates Iran from Oman, has long been a flashpoint in U.S.-Iran relations. Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the strait in response to sanctions or military pressure, though such threats have yet to materialize into sustained disruptions. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iran’s elite military force, has conducted multiple naval exercises in the strait, demonstrating its ability to deploy fast-attack craft, coastal missile batteries, and naval mines—tactics designed to harass or interdict commercial shipping without engaging in direct confrontation with U.S. or allied naval forces.
Why It Matters
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical artery for global energy markets. Approximately 21 million barrels of oil pass through the strait daily, accounting for roughly 20% of the world’s petroleum trade. Any sustained disruption—whether through mining, missile attacks, or swarming tactics by Iranian fast boats—could send oil prices soaring, destabilize global supply chains, and trigger economic ripple effects far beyond the Middle East. For Iran, the strait is both a vulnerability and a weapon. While Tehran relies on oil exports to sustain its economy, its ability to threaten the strait provides a potent deterrent against Western military action or economic coercion.
Krieg’s remarks highlight the asymmetric nature of Iran’s military strategy. Unlike conventional naval powers such as the United States or China, Iran lacks the capability to project force across open waters. Instead, it relies on its geographic proximity to the strait, its network of coastal defenses, and its ability to deploy unconventional tactics—such as mines and small-boat attacks—to disrupt shipping. This approach allows Iran to punch above its weight in regional conflicts, forcing adversaries to reckon with the potential costs of escalation.
The timing of Krieg’s analysis is significant. In recent months, tensions between Iran and Israel have spilled over into the maritime domain, with attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman. The U.S. has responded by increasing its naval presence in the region, including the deployment of additional warships and the expansion of joint patrols with allies such as the UK and France. These measures are designed to deter Iranian aggression, but they also underscore the fragility of the status quo. A single miscalculation—whether by Iran, the U.S., or one of their proxies—could trigger a broader conflict with devastating consequences for global energy markets.
Background and Context
The Strait of Hormuz has been a focal point of U.S.-Iran tensions since the 1980s, when Iran and Iraq engaged in a brutal war that saw both sides target oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. During the so-called “Tanker War,” Iran mined shipping lanes and attacked vessels linked to Iraq and its Gulf allies, prompting the U.S. to intervene under Operation Earnest Will. The U.S. Navy escorted Kuwaiti oil tankers through the strait, a move that escalated tensions and led to direct clashes between U.S. and Iranian forces, including the downing of an Iranian passenger jet by the USS Vincennes in 1988.
In the decades since, Iran has continued to develop its asymmetric naval capabilities, focusing on fast-attack craft, anti-ship missiles, and mine warfare. The IRGC’s naval forces, which operate independently of Iran’s regular navy, have been at the forefront of this strategy. In 2019, Iran seized a British-flagged oil tanker in the strait in retaliation for the UK’s detention of an Iranian vessel off Gibraltar. The incident underscored Iran’s willingness to use the strait as a bargaining chip in its broader geopolitical disputes.
The U.S. has sought to counter Iran’s influence in the strait through a combination of military presence and diplomatic pressure. The U.S. Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, maintains a constant patrol of the region, and the U.S. has worked with allies to establish the International Maritime Security Construct (IMSC), a coalition aimed at protecting commercial shipping from Iranian threats. Despite these efforts, Iran’s ability to disrupt shipping remains a persistent concern. In 2020, Iran was widely suspected of carrying out a series of attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman, though Tehran denied involvement.
Competing Claims and Uncertainty
Krieg’s assessment that Iran’s control over the strait is about “the spoils of war” reflects a broader debate among analysts about Tehran’s strategic intentions. Some experts argue that Iran’s threats to close the strait are primarily rhetorical, designed to extract concessions from the U.S. and its allies rather than trigger a full-blown crisis. Others contend that Iran’s military posture in the strait is a genuine deterrent, aimed at preventing Western military action against its nuclear program or regional proxies.
One area of uncertainty is the extent to which Iran’s economic vulnerabilities constrain its ability to disrupt the strait. While Iran’s oil exports have been severely curtailed by U.S. sanctions, the country still relies on oil revenues to fund its government and military. A sustained closure of the strait would not only harm global energy markets but also cut off Iran’s own access to critical export routes. This dual-edged nature of the strait’s importance makes it difficult to predict whether Iran would follow through on its threats in a crisis.
Another point of contention is the effectiveness of U.S. and allied deterrence efforts. While the U.S. Fifth Fleet and its partners have maintained a robust presence in the region, Iran’s asymmetric tactics—such as mine warfare and swarming attacks—pose unique challenges. Mines, in particular, are difficult to detect and clear, and even a small number of them could disrupt shipping for weeks or months. The U.S. has invested in mine-countermeasure capabilities, but the sheer volume of traffic through the strait makes it a daunting task to secure.
What to Watch Next
Several key developments could shape the future of Iran’s influence over the Strait of Hormuz in the coming months:
1. U.S.-Iran Nuclear Negotiations: The status of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program will be a critical factor. If talks collapse or sanctions are tightened, Iran may escalate its threats to close the strait as a form of retaliation. Conversely, a diplomatic breakthrough could reduce tensions and lower the risk of maritime disruptions.
2. Regional Proxy Conflicts: Iran’s support for proxy groups in Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon has been a major source of instability in the Middle East. Any escalation in these conflicts—particularly between Iran and Israel—could spill over into the maritime domain, increasing the risk of attacks on commercial shipping.
3. Global Energy Markets: The resilience of global oil markets will play a role in determining how much leverage Iran can exert over the strait. If oil prices remain stable despite regional tensions, Iran’s threats may lose some of their potency. However, if prices spike due to supply disruptions elsewhere, the strait could become a more attractive target for Iranian pressure.
4. Military Posturing: Both Iran and the U.S. are likely to continue their military posturing in the region. Iran’s naval exercises in the strait, as well as its development of new anti-ship missiles and drones, will be closely watched. Meanwhile, the U.S. and its allies may increase their patrols or deploy additional mine-countermeasure assets to deter Iranian aggression.
5. Economic Sanctions: The impact of U.S. sanctions on Iran’s economy will influence Tehran’s calculus. If sanctions continue to cripple Iran’s oil exports, the government may become more desperate to extract concessions from the West, potentially increasing the risk of maritime provocations.
Conclusion
Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz is a complex interplay of geography, military strategy, and geopolitical ambition. While Tehran lacks the conventional naval power to challenge the U.S. or its allies in open combat, its ability to disrupt shipping through asymmetric tactics remains a persistent threat to global energy security. Andreas Krieg’s assessment that Iran’s influence over the strait is about “the spoils of war” underscores the broader context of regional conflict, where economic leverage and military deterrence are deeply intertwined.
The strait’s importance to global oil markets ensures that it will remain a flashpoint in U.S.-Iran relations for the foreseeable future. The challenge for policymakers in Washington, Tehran, and allied capitals will be to manage tensions in a way that avoids a catastrophic escalation. For now, Iran’s threats to close the strait remain largely rhetorical, but the risk of miscalculation is ever-present. As long as the Middle East remains a tinderbox of competing interests, the Strait of Hormuz will continue to be a critical—and volatile—chokepoint in global trade.
Sources:
– Al Jazeera News. “Krieg: For Iran control of the Strait of Hormuz is about the spoils of war.” [Video segment, June 25, 2026](https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/6/25/aje-onl-nf_krieg_control-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-spoils-of-war-250626w?traffic_source=rss).
Story synopsis gathered from: Al Jazeera News — source
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