New Delhi – A study by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) projects that the upcoming El Niño weather pattern will significantly reduce wind and hydropower output in India, potentially widening the nation’s electricity generation shortfall to almost 18 terawatt‑hours (TWh) over the 12‑month period ending June 2027.
The analysis, released in early July 2026, links weaker monsoon rains and lower wind speeds—both typical El Niño effects—to a decline in renewable generation. CREA’s model estimates a combined drop of roughly 10 TWh from wind farms and 8 TWh from hydroelectric plants. At the same time, the institute expects a surge in electricity demand for air‑conditioning as temperatures rise, adding pressure on the grid.
“We are looking at a generation‑demand gap that could stress the power system if not addressed promptly,” the study’s authors wrote. The report calls for accelerated deployment of solar capacity, greater reliance on battery storage, and short‑term procurement of additional gas‑based power to bridge the anticipated shortfall.
India’s Ministry of Power has not yet commented on the CREA findings. However, the country’s power planners have previously highlighted the vulnerability of renewable output to climate variability. In 2025, the Central Electricity Authority reported that wind generation fell by 12 % during a weaker monsoon year, while hydro output dropped by 9 % due to reduced reservoir inflows.
Industry analysts note that the projected gap coincides with India’s ongoing push to meet its 2030 renewable energy target of 500 GW. “If El Niño curtails wind and hydro, the onus will shift to solar and gas, which could strain supply chains and raise costs,” said a senior analyst at a Delhi‑based consultancy, speaking on condition of anonymity.
CREA’s methodology combines historical climate data, output records from the Central Electricity Authority, and demand forecasts from the Bureau of Energy Efficiency. The study assumes a moderate El Niño event, comparable to the 2015‑16 episode that saw a 5‑6 % dip in overall renewable generation.
Policy experts warn that delayed action could force the grid operator, the Power System Operation Corporation (POSOCO), to rely more heavily on coal‑fired plants, potentially undermining India’s emissions reduction commitments under the Paris Agreement.
Analysis:
The CREA forecast underscores the intersection of climate risk and energy security for India. While the projected 18 TWh gap represents roughly 2 % of the country’s annual electricity consumption, the timing—coinciding with peak summer demand—could amplify stress on the grid. The study’s recommendation to boost solar and storage aligns with existing policy directions, but implementation will require rapid procurement and financing.
If the gap materialises, utilities may face higher operating costs as they turn to more expensive peaking plants, likely passing price increases onto consumers. Moreover, reliance on gas imports could expose India to geopolitical supply shocks, especially given recent volatility in global LNG markets.
Given the modest margin of error inherent in climate‑energy modeling, the actual impact may differ. However, the convergence of reduced renewable output and heightened cooling demand presents a credible risk that warrants pre‑emptive planning. Stakeholders—including the Ministry of Power, state utilities, and private developers—should consider scenario‑based planning to ensure grid reliability without compromising climate goals.
Sources
– The Hindu, “El Niño to dent India’s wind, hydropower output: study,” July 2026, https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/energy-and-environment/el-nino-to-dent-indias-wind-hydropower-output-study/article71189323.ece
Story synopsis gathered from: The Hindu – National — source
Corrections
If you believe this article contains an error, contact Herald Express with the source URL and supporting evidence.
