Addis Ababa – Ethiopia’s federal government intensified air and drone strikes over the Tigray region throughout August and September, reviving a level of fighting not seen since a fragile cease‑fire collapsed four years ago【F1†https://theconversation.com/ethiopia-is-sliding-back-toward-war-a-look-at-what-is-driving-the-fighting-and-why-it-matters-293073】. The campaign has hit schools, residential neighborhoods, a farmer‑training centre and a truck carrying food aid, according to Tigrayan organisations and human‑rights groups【F8†https://theconversation.com/ethiopia-is-sliding-back-toward-war-a-look-at-what-is-driving-the-fighting-and-why-it-matters-293073】. Federal officials say the strikes aim to degrade Tigrayan military capability after accusing the regional forces of remobilising【F9†https://theconversation.com/ethiopia-is-sliding-back-toward-war-a-look-at-what-is-driving-the-fighting-and-why-it-matters-293073】.
The renewed hostilities have been accompanied by the formation of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, a coalition announced by seven armed organisations on the 20th of the month【F10†https://theconversation.com/ethiopia-is-sliding-back-toward-war-a-look-at-what-is-driving-the-fighting-and-why-it-matters-293073】. Pro‑government forces reported entering Alamata, a key transport and supply hub south of Mekelle, on the 28th【F11†https://theconversation.com/ethiopia-is-sliding-back-toward-war-a-look-at-what-is-driving-the-fighting-and-why-it-matters-293073】. The alliance’s most notable partnership pairs the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) with the Amhara‑based Fano movement, which previously fought alongside federal troops in the 2020‑2022 civil war【F13†https://theconversation.com/ethiopia-is-sliding-back-toward-war-a-look-at-what-is-driving-the-fighting-and-why-it-matters-293073】. While some members possess limited military capacity and hold divergent territorial and political goals【F14†https://theconversation.com/ethiopia-is-sliding-back-toward-war-a-look-at-what-is-driving-the-fighting-and-why-it-matters-293073】, the coalition has agreed on a minimum programme that calls for the removal of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government, the establishment of an inclusive transitional administration and constitutional reform【F15†https://theconversation.com/ethiopia-is-sliding-back-toward-war-a-look-at-what-is-driving-the-fighting-and-why-it-matters-293073】.
Eritrea is identified as the most significant potential external actor in the renewed conflict【F16†https://theconversation.com/ethiopia-is-sliding-back-toward-war-a-look-at-what-is-driving-the-fighting-and-why-it-matters-293073】. During the previous war, Eritrean forces fought alongside Ethiopia’s federal military and were accused of committing atrocities against Tigrayan civilians【F17†https://theconversation.com/ethiopia-is-sliding-back-toward-war-a-look-at-what-is-driving-the-fighting-and-why-it-matters-293073】.
The roots of the current crisis lie in an unresolved constitutional struggle over federalism, regional autonomy, territorial boundaries and the distribution of political power【F19†https://theconversation.com/ethiopia-is-sliding-back-toward-war-a-look-at-what-is-driving-the-fighting-and-why-it-matters-293073】. The TPLF, which dominated Ethiopia’s ruling coalition from 1991 until Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took office in 2018, remains the primary opponent of the federal government in the north【F12†https://theconversation.com/ethiopia-is-sliding-back-toward-war-a-look-at-what-is-driving-the-fighting-and-why-it-matters-293073】.
Human‑rights observers warn that the renewed fighting could intersect with the civil war in neighboring Sudan, raising the risk of a broader regional conflagration【F4†https://theconversation.com/ethiopia-is-sliding-back-toward-war-a-look-at-what-is-driving-the-fighting-and-why-it-matters-293073】. Projections suggest that over the next two years, as many as 600,000 people could die from violence, hunger and the collapse of health services, while more than two million may be displaced【F20†https://theconversation.com/ethiopia-is-sliding-back-toward-war-a-look-at-what-is-driving-the-fighting-and-why-it-matters-293073】.
The escalation underscores a shift from the tentative peace that followed the 2022 cease‑fire to open‑ended conflict, with both federal and regional forces mobilising for a protracted struggle.
Sources
– The Conversation – Global, “Ethiopia is sliding back toward war – a look at what is driving the fighting and why it matters,” September 29 2026, https://theconversation.com/ethiopia-is-sliding-back-toward-war-a-look-at-what-is-driving-the-fighting-and-why-it-matters-293073
Source: The Conversation – Global
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Story synopsis gathered from: The Conversation – Global — source
