As John Kampfner marks five years as a naturalized German citizen, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) appears poised to consolidate power in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, a development he describes as one of the most consequential moments for German democracy in recent memory. The convergence of his personal civic milestone and the AfD’s anticipated political ascent frames a broader question confronting Germany and Europe: whether democratic institutions can withstand the steady advance of populist far-right movements. Kampfner, writing in The Guardian, says the AfD’s anticipated electoral success or governmental takeover in the state will dominate media coverage in the coming days, even as his own citizenship anniversary passes largely unnoticed.
What happened
The AfD, a nationalist and anti-immigration party founded in 2013, is projected to perform strongly in Saxony-Anhalt, a state in eastern Germany with a population of roughly 2.2 million. The party has been part of coalition governments in several eastern states and has consistently polled strongly in the region. Kampfner identifies two events in the coming days that will shape his relationship with his adopted country: a civic ceremony marking his own citizenship anniversary, and the AfD’s rise to power in Saxony-Anhalt, an event he says requires courage to defeat.
The AfD’s anticipated performance reflects the party’s sustained strength in eastern German states, where it has repeatedly finished first or second in state elections. The party’s platform centers on opposition to immigration, skepticism toward European Union integration, and calls for aggressive law-and-order policies. Its leaders have repeatedly been accused of harboring far-right and pro-Russian sympathies, allegations the party denies.
Why it matters
The AfD’s potential control of a state government in eastern Germany carries implications that extend well beyond the state’s borders. At the state level, the party would gain influence over policing, education curricula, and administrative appointments — levers that could be used to reshape public institutions in ways aligned with its nationalist agenda. At the national level, the AfD’s success may embolden its parliamentary group in the Bundestag and complicate coalition-building among mainstream parties, which have long struggled to form durable governing alliances that exclude the AfD.
Analysis: The shift could have significant implications for national policy debates, particularly on immigration, EU integration, and fiscal policy. Observers note that the AfD’s success in Saxony-Anhalt may embolden the party’s national agenda and influence coalition dynamics in the Bundestag. Mainstream parties have historically followed a strategy of “Brandmauer” — a fire wall — refusing to cooperate with the AfD at any level of government. However, as the party’s electoral footprint grows, some political analysts have questioned whether this approach remains sustainable or whether it risks marginalizing a significant share of the electorate.
The personal reflection of a long-term resident on the eve of a major political change adds a human dimension to the story, highlighting how democratic backsliding can affect those who have chosen to become part of a nation’s civic fabric. Kampfner’s emphasis on courage underscores the role of civil society and individual action in countering extremist political advances. His dual perspective — as both an insider who has chosen Germany as his home and an observer wary of its political trajectory — captures a tension familiar to many naturalized citizens across Europe.
Background and context
The AfD entered the Bundestag in 2017 and has since become the third- or fourth-largest party in the federal parliament, depending on the polling cycle. The party’s support is concentrated in eastern Germany, where economic stagnation following reunification and a sense of political marginalization have created fertile ground for populist movements. The party’s co-leader, Alice Weidel, and former co-leader Alexander Gauland have made statements interpreted by critics as minimizing Germany’s Nazi past and expressing sympathy for the country’s wartime actions.
Saxony-Anhalt has a history of AfD involvement in state government. The party entered a coalition government in the state in 2021, making it one of the first eastern states where the AfD participated in executive power. The state’s political landscape has been shaped by the legacy of the former East Germany, where the ruling Socialist Unity Party (SED) transitioned into the Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS) and later Die Linke, leaving a vacuum on the political right that the AfD has filled.
The broader European context adds further weight to the situation. Populist and far-right parties have gained ground in regional elections across the continent, from France’s National Rally to Italy’s Lega Nord. Analysts have noted that these movements often share a common playbook: exploiting anxieties about immigration, cultural identity, and economic dislocation, while challenging established liberal democratic norms.
Analysis: The AfD’s trajectory mirrors patterns observed in other European democracies, where mainstream parties have struggled to address the concerns driving voters toward populist alternatives. The party’s growing institutional presence — from state cabinets to parliamentary committees — raises questions about the limits of democratic tolerance. Once a fringe movement, the AfD now participates in governance in multiple states, normalizing its presence in ways that earlier generations of German politicians would have found deeply unsettling.
Germany’s post-war democratic order was explicitly designed to prevent the rise of extremist movements. The country’s constitutional framework includes provisions for banning parties that seek to undermine the free democratic basic order. However, efforts to ban the AfD have faced legal and political hurdles, with courts requiring evidence that the party’s objectives are incompatible with the constitution rather than merely objectionable statements by individual members.
What to watch next
In the coming days, attention will focus on the formal mechanics of the AfD’s governmental role in Saxony-Anhalt, including the appointment of state ministers and the policy priorities the party pursues in areas under its control. Political analysts will watch whether the AfD moderates its rhetoric as it assumes governing responsibilities or doubles down on confrontational positions that have defined its national brand.
The response from mainstream parties will be equally significant. Whether the CDU, SPD, Greens, and other established forces maintain the Brandmauer strategy or begin to explore limited cooperation with the AfD at the state level could reshape German coalition politics for years to come. The federal government’s approach to the situation will also be scrutinized, particularly if the AfD uses its state-level platform to challenge Berlin’s policies on migration or European integration.
Analysis: The broader implications for European democracy will depend on whether Germany’s institutions prove resilient in the face of the AfD’s advance. Germany’s role as the European Union’s largest economy and most powerful member state means that democratic backsliding in Berlin carries outsized consequences for the bloc’s direction. If the AfD gains influence over German foreign policy or EU negotiations, the effects could ripple across the continent.
Kampfner’s personal milestone — his citizenship ceremony — serves as a reminder that democracy is not merely an abstract system of governance but a civic practice sustained by individual participation. His decision to remain hopeful despite the AfD’s rise reflects a perspective that many Germans, both native-born and naturalized, hold even as they express deep concern about the country’s political direction.
Conclusion
The AfD’s anticipated consolidation of power in Saxony-Anhalt represents a pivotal moment for German democracy and a test of the country’s post-war political order. The party’s growing institutional presence raises fundamental questions about the boundaries of democratic tolerance and the capacity of mainstream parties to address the grievances driving voter realignment. As Kampfner’s reflection illustrates, the stakes extend beyond electoral politics to the everyday experience of citizenship and belonging in a nation whose democratic foundations are being vigorously contested. What unfolds in Saxony-Anhalt in the coming days will be watched closely not only in Berlin and Brussels but across democracies grappling with the same forces of populism and polarization.
Sources:
John Kampfner, “The shadow of the AfD hangs over German democracy – but I still have faith in my adopted country,” The Guardian, 2 September 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/sep/02/germany-afd-democracy-country-citizenship-far-right.
Source: Guardian International
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Story synopsis gathered from: Guardian International — source
