BELGRADE — President Aleksandar Vucic is steering Serbia through an increasingly narrow diplomatic corridor as the country prepares for a parliamentary vote, maintaining public overtures toward European Union membership while preserving longstanding ties with Russia. The balancing act is drawing scrutiny from analysts who say the war in Ukraine, combined with domestic political pressures, is reshaping the space available to Belgrade.
The election, expected later this year, will test whether Vucic and his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) can extend their dominance amid a more contested political environment. Opposition groupings have consolidated, and public frustration over economic conditions, corruption allegations, and perceived authoritarian drift has surfaced in repeated street protests.
What happened
Serbia is formally an EU candidate country, with accession negotiations opened in 2014 following the application’s launch in 2012. Progress, however, has been slow. Brussels has consistently flagged concerns over democratic backsliding, media freedom, and the rule of law — issues European institutions have said intensified in recent years.
At the same time, Belgrade has refused to join Western sanctions against Moscow following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. That stance has drawn criticism from European partners and the United States but continues to draw support among significant segments of the Serbian public, where Russia is viewed more favorably than in most other European countries.
Vucic has framed Serbia’s position as one of military neutrality and strategic independence. In public remarks and government statements, he has argued that alignment with either bloc carries costs Serbia cannot afford, and that the country benefits from maintaining working relationships with all major powers.
Why it matters
Serbia’s position carries significance beyond its borders. As a candidate for EU membership and a country that shares borders with several EU members, its foreign policy orientation is viewed in Brussels as a test case for the Union’s ability to project conditionality on its periphery. At the same time, Serbia’s refusal to sanction Russia has been cited by EU officials as evidence that accession negotiations cannot proceed without greater alignment on foreign and security policy.
The country is also a key factor in the Western Balkans, a region where both the EU and Russia have competing interests. Serbia’s relationships with Bosnia and Herzegovina, where Republika Srpska maintains close ties to Belgrade, and with Kosovo, whose 2008 declaration of independence Serbia does not recognize, give it an outsized regional role.
For the United States, Serbia represents one of the few European states that has resisted pressure to isolate Moscow, complicating transatlantic coordination on Ukraine policy.
Background and context
Analysts point to a structural tension at the heart of Serbian foreign policy. The EU remains Serbia’s largest trading partner and a major source of foreign direct investment, as well as a destination for Serbian citizens and labor migration. Russia retains cultural, religious, and energy ties, and has historically backed Belgrade’s position on Kosovo at the United Nations and in multilateral forums. China has emerged as a significant economic actor in recent years, financing infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative, including segments of Belgrade’s rail network and a major highway project.
The war in Ukraine has sharpened these contradictions. EU member states have grown less tolerant of what some officials describe as strategic ambiguity, and Brussels has increasingly linked progress on individual accession chapters to alignment with its foreign policy, including sanctions enforcement and diplomatic positions. Moscow, for its part, faces growing economic limitations in offering Serbia tangible support, though it has continued symbolic gestures of solidarity.
Within Serbia, the political environment has also shifted. Vucic and the SNS have consolidated power since 2012, controlling parliament and most major institutions, but opposition movements have gained momentum. Mass protests in recent years over allegations of electoral irregularities and a deadly canopy collapse at a recently renovated railway station in Novi Sad in late 2024 have put the government on the defensive. The station collapse, which killed multiple people, became a focal point for public anger over corruption and construction safety, and prompted demands for accountability that the government has been slow to address.
The opposition has sought to capitalize on this discontent, though it remains divided and faces a political environment widely seen as favoring the incumbents. Election monitors from the OSCE have previously documented irregularities in Serbian elections, and the European Parliament has called for greater scrutiny of the electoral process.
What to watch next
The parliamentary vote itself is the immediate focal point. Attention will fall on turnout, the margin of any SNS victory, and whether opposition parties are able to coordinate across their various factions. International observers will be looking for signs of whether the electoral process meets democratic standards.
Beyond the vote, several other developments will shape Serbia’s diplomatic trajectory. EU accession talks are expected to continue, though progress on individual chapters is likely to remain slow without movement on foreign policy alignment. Kosovo remains a persistent flashpoint, with periodic flare-ups in tensions between Belgrade and Pristina drawing international concern. And the war in Ukraine continues to set the terms on which European and U.S. officials evaluate Serbia’s partnership.
Domestically, the fallout from the Novi Sad railway station collapse and other corruption allegations is likely to remain a political issue, and could shape the tone of the campaign. The government’s response to public anger over infrastructure safety will be closely watched by both domestic civil society and international partners.
Analysis
Vucic’s traditional approach — engaging the EU on technical and economic matters while preserving security and political relationships with Russia and China — is becoming harder to sustain as pressure from both sides intensifies. The EU increasingly conditions accession progress on foreign policy alignment, while Moscow’s capacity to offer Serbia material benefits is constrained by its own economic difficulties. The election is unlikely to resolve these structural pressures, but it will offer an early indication of whether Vucic commands the domestic legitimacy to continue calibrating between competing power centers, or whether the cost of ambiguity has begun to erode his political base.
The deeper question is whether Serbia’s model of multi-vector foreign policy is sustainable under current conditions. For more than a decade, Belgrade has been able to extract economic benefits from the EU, diplomatic backing from Russia and China, and a degree of autonomy from both blocs. As the war in Ukraine continues and EU accession demands sharpen, the contradictions in that model are likely to grow. Whether Vucic adjusts the balance, or attempts to hold it in place, will have consequences not only for Serbia but for the wider Western Balkans and for transatlantic debates over how to engage with states that resist full alignment.
Sources
DW News: https://www.dw.com/en/serbia-keeping-eu-russia-in-play-ahead-of-key-election/a-78543495
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Story synopsis gathered from: DW News — source
