Supermarket shelves across Kenya are running empty of milk as dairy farmers grapple with a severe feed shortage that has driven up prices and left vendors rationing supplies. The crisis, which has hit the East African nation’s beloved chai (tea) culture, stems from prolonged drought conditions and rising costs of animal feed that have forced many small-scale dairy farmers to reduce herd sizes or abandon dairying altogether.
In Nairobi’s bustling markets and residential neighborhoods, tea vendors report paying up to 50% more for milk compared to six months ago. “The price of a liter of milk has gone from 110 shillings to 160 shillings,” said Wanjiru Mwangi, a tea vendor in the capital’s Eastleigh district. “Customers are complaining, but there is nothing I can do when my supplier tells me he can only deliver half the usual amount.”
The situation has prompted major retailers including Nakumatt and Uchumi to implement purchase limits on milk products, with some supermarkets limiting customers to two cartons per visit. Wholesale markets in Eldoret, Kenya’s dairy hub, have seen milk deliveries drop by an estimated 30% as farmers struggle to maintain production levels.
Government officials acknowledge the severity of the situation. Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mwangi Kiunjuri told reporters that the ministry is working with county governments to distribute subsidized animal feed and provide emergency support to affected farmers. “We are coordinating with development partners to import feed and are exploring short-term measures to stabilize the market,” Kiunjuri said in a statement.
What happened
The current milk shortage traces back to a cascade of agricultural challenges that began in late 2024 and intensified through 2025. Prolonged drought conditions across Kenya’s central and Rift Valley regions—the country’s primary dairy-producing areas—have severely reduced pasture availability for cattle. According to data from the Kenya Meteorological Department, rainfall in these regions fell 40% below long-term averages during the March-to-May 2025 long rains season, marking one of the driest periods in over a decade.
As natural pastures withered, dairy farmers increasingly turned to commercial animal feed, primarily composed of maize and soybean meal. However, global commodity markets experienced significant price spikes in 2025 due to supply chain disruptions and adverse weather conditions in major exporting nations such as the United States and Brazil. The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics reported that maize and soybean meal costs—key components of dairy cattle feed—reached record highs in the first quarter of 2026, with prices increasing by more than 40% over the past year.
The compounding effect of these factors has forced many small-scale dairy farmers, who constitute approximately 80% of Kenya’s milk production, to make difficult economic decisions. Many have reduced their herd sizes to match available feed resources, while others have exited dairying entirely. The Kenya Dairy Board estimates that the national herd has shrunk by 15% since the beginning of 2025, with the most significant losses occurring in the Central, Eastern, and Rift Valley regions.
Why it matters
The milk shortage extends far beyond empty supermarket shelves and higher prices for morning tea. Kenya’s dairy sector employs over 1.5 million people directly and indirectly, making it a critical component of rural livelihoods and national food security. Smallholder farmers, who typically operate on thin margins, face the risk of complete income loss if they cannot sustain their livestock through the crisis.
For consumers, particularly in urban areas where chai culture is deeply embedded in daily life, the shortage represents a significant increase in the cost of living. Tea vendors, who form the backbone of Kenya’s informal economy, are caught between rising procurement costs and customers unwilling or unable to absorb price increases. This dynamic threatens the viability of thousands of small businesses that serve as community gathering points and sources of employment.
The crisis also highlights vulnerabilities in Kenya’s agricultural infrastructure and policy response mechanisms. The country’s heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture for both crop and livestock production makes it increasingly susceptible to climate variability. As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense due to climate change, the stability of Kenya’s food systems faces ongoing threats.
Analysis: The current situation reflects broader agricultural pressures across East Africa, where climate variability and rising input costs have disrupted traditional farming patterns. Regional drought conditions have reduced pasture availability, forcing farmers to purchase commercial feed at prices that have increased by more than 40% over the past year. Experts note that the current shortage could have lasting effects on rural livelihoods and consumer prices well into 2026.
Background and context
Kenya’s relationship with dairy farming dates back centuries, with traditional pastoralist communities in the north and smallholder farmers in the highlands developing sophisticated systems for cattle rearing and milk production. The colonial period introduced commercial dairy operations, particularly in the Central and Rift Valley regions, which remain the heartland of Kenya’s milk production today.
Following independence, the government actively promoted dairy development through cooperatives and extension services. By the 1980s, Kenya had established itself as one of East Africa’s leading milk producers, with a robust informal sector complementing formal processing and distribution networks. The liberalization of the 1990s further expanded the sector, leading to increased private investment in processing facilities and retail outlets.
However, the sector has faced recurring challenges, including periodic droughts, disease outbreaks, and market fluctuations. The 2017 drought, for instance, resulted in significant livestock losses and temporary milk shortages. More recently, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted supply chains and reduced demand from institutional buyers such as schools and hotels, creating additional pressures on farmers.
The current crisis differs from previous episodes in several key ways. First, the duration and severity of the drought have exceeded historical norms, consistent with climate change projections for the region. Second, global feed price increases have created unprecedented cost pressures that small-scale farmers struggle to absorb. Third, the concentration of retail outlets under a few major chains has amplified the impact of supply disruptions on consumers.
What to watch next
The Kenyan government has announced several measures aimed at addressing the immediate crisis and building resilience for future challenges. Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mwangi Kiunjuri indicated that the ministry is coordinating with county governments to distribute subsidized animal feed and provide emergency support to affected farmers. The government is also reportedly exploring partnerships with development partners to facilitate feed imports and is considering short-term measures to stabilize market prices.
Additionally, plans are underway to establish emergency feed reserves and fast-track irrigation projects to support fodder production. These initiatives, if implemented effectively, could help mitigate the impact of future droughts and reduce farmers’ dependence on rain-fed agriculture. However, the success of these measures will depend on adequate funding, efficient implementation, and coordination between national and county governments.
Market observers are also monitoring potential shifts in consumer behavior and agricultural practices. Some farmers have begun transitioning to alternative livestock or crop farming, raising concerns among economists about long-term impacts on Kenya’s food security and agricultural economy. If this trend continues, it could reshape the structure of rural livelihoods and influence the country’s overall agricultural output.
International organizations, including the Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Bank, are expected to release assessments of the crisis and recommendations for sustainable solutions. Their involvement may bring additional resources and technical expertise to support recovery efforts.
Conclusion
Kenya’s milk shortage serves as a stark reminder of the fragility of agricultural systems in the face of climate variability and global market forces. While the immediate focus remains on stabilizing supplies and supporting affected farmers, the crisis underscores the need for long-term strategies that enhance resilience and sustainability in the dairy sector.
The government’s response, including emergency feed distribution and infrastructure investments, will be critical in determining whether the current shortage represents a temporary disruption or the beginning of a more prolonged decline in Kenya’s dairy production capacity. Equally important will be the ability of farmers, cooperatives, and private sector actors to adapt to changing conditions and capitalize on new opportunities.
As Kenya navigates this challenging period, the experiences of its farmers, vendors, and consumers will offer valuable lessons for addressing the intersection of climate change, food security, and economic stability in East Africa and beyond. The outcome of these efforts will have implications not only for Kenya’s chai tea culture but for the broader prospects of sustainable agriculture in a changing climate.
Sources:
BBC News World – https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgqd9ldegjqo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
Source: BBC News World
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Story synopsis gathered from: BBC News World — source
