MUMBAI — Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has reignited speculation about a potential reunification of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) after holding separate, unannounced meetings with leaders from both its warring factions this week. The discussions, confirmed by multiple government sources but shrouded in official silence, come at a critical juncture for the state’s political landscape, just months before the 2026 Maharashtra assembly elections. While neither faction has publicly disclosed the agenda, the meetings have fueled intense debate about whether the NCP’s three-year schism—one of the most consequential splits in recent Indian politics—could be healing, and what such a development would mean for the BJP’s dominance in the state.
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What Happened
On Tuesday, Fadnavis met with senior leaders from both the Sharad Pawar-led NCP and the breakaway Ajit Pawar faction at the state guesthouse in Mumbai. The meetings, described by sources as “informal and exploratory,” lasted over two hours each and were not listed on the Chief Minister’s official schedule. No readouts were issued by the Chief Minister’s Office (CMO), and neither faction has commented on the discussions.
The secrecy surrounding the meetings has amplified speculation. According to two Maharashtra government officials who spoke on condition of anonymity, the discussions touched on “broader political realignments” and the “future of the NCP,” though no concrete proposals were reportedly exchanged. One source close to the Ajit Pawar faction claimed that Fadnavis “sought assurances” about the stability of the current BJP-NCP coalition, while another suggested the meetings were part of a “routine review” of the government’s legislative agenda.
The NCP split in July 2023, when Ajit Pawar, the nephew of party patriarch Sharad Pawar, led a rebellion that saw nearly half the party’s legislators defect to the BJP. The move handed the BJP a majority in the Maharashtra assembly and triggered a bitter legal battle over the party’s name and election symbol, which remains unresolved. While the Ajit Pawar faction has since governed as a junior partner in the BJP-led coalition, tensions have simmered over policy differences and seat-sharing disputes, particularly in local body elections.
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Why It Matters
The potential reunification of the NCP carries significant implications for Maharashtra’s political future. Here’s why the developments are being closely watched:
1. Electoral Math in 2026
Maharashtra’s 288-seat assembly is finely balanced, with the BJP and its allies holding 165 seats, just above the majority mark of 145. The Sharad Pawar-led NCP holds 40 seats, while the Ajit Pawar faction controls 35. A reunited NCP would command 75 seats, making it the second-largest party in the assembly and a formidable opposition force. Political analysts suggest that even a partial reconciliation could consolidate anti-BJP votes, particularly in western Maharashtra, where the NCP has traditionally been strong.
“If the two factions come together, it could reshape the electoral arithmetic,” said Suhas Palshikar, a Pune-based political scientist. “The BJP’s strategy has relied on opposition fragmentation. A united NCP would force the BJP to recalibrate its approach, possibly even reconsider its alliance with the Ajit Pawar group.”
2. BJP’s Coalition Dilemma
The BJP’s alliance with the Ajit Pawar faction has been marked by friction. While the partnership has provided the BJP with a legislative majority, it has also limited the party’s ability to expand its base. The Ajit Pawar group’s demands for greater representation in the cabinet and local bodies have led to public spats, including a high-profile dispute over the appointment of municipal commissioners in Pune and Nashik earlier this year.
Fadnavis’ meetings with both factions could signal the BJP’s attempt to hedge its bets. If the NCP reunifies, the BJP may seek to distance itself from the Ajit Pawar faction to avoid being seen as a “divisive force.” Alternatively, the meetings could be a pressure tactic to extract concessions from the Ajit Pawar group ahead of the elections.
3. Symbolic and Legal Battles
The NCP’s split has been accompanied by a protracted legal dispute over the party’s name and the “clock” election symbol, which the Sharad Pawar faction currently holds. The Election Commission of India (ECI) has yet to rule on the matter, and a reunification could render the case moot. However, if the factions remain divided, the ECI’s decision could have far-reaching consequences, potentially forcing one group to adopt a new identity ahead of the 2026 polls.
4. National Ramifications
Maharashtra is a key battleground in national politics, and the state’s assembly elections are often seen as a precursor to the general elections. A reunited NCP could strengthen the opposition’s hand in the state, potentially influencing the INDIA alliance’s strategy at the national level. Sharad Pawar, a veteran politician with deep ties to regional parties, has been a vocal critic of the BJP’s centralization of power, and his faction’s reunification with Ajit Pawar’s group could signal a shift in the opposition’s unity efforts.
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Background and Context
The NCP’s split in 2023 was the culmination of years of internal strife. Founded in 1999 by Sharad Pawar after he broke away from the Congress, the NCP has long been a dominant force in Maharashtra politics, particularly in the sugar belt of western Maharashtra. However, tensions between Sharad Pawar and his nephew Ajit Pawar have simmered for over a decade, fueled by disagreements over leadership, policy, and the party’s ideological direction.
The 2023 split was triggered by Ajit Pawar’s frustration over his limited role in the party’s decision-making process. Despite being the NCP’s most prominent face in the assembly, Ajit Pawar was often sidelined in favor of Sharad Pawar’s daughter, Supriya Sule, who represents the Baramati Lok Sabha constituency. The defection of 35 NCP legislators to the BJP in July 2023 was seen as a direct challenge to Sharad Pawar’s leadership, and the two factions have since operated as separate entities, with the Ajit Pawar group aligning with the BJP and the Sharad Pawar faction joining the opposition INDIA alliance.
The split had immediate political consequences. The BJP, which had been struggling to secure a majority in the assembly, suddenly found itself in a position of strength, forming a government with the Ajit Pawar faction’s support. However, the alliance has been fragile, with the Ajit Pawar group frequently clashing with the BJP over policy issues, including farm loan waivers and the implementation of central schemes in Maharashtra.
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Competing Claims and Uncertainty
Despite the flurry of speculation, several key questions remain unanswered:
1. Was Reunification the Agenda?
While media reports have framed the meetings as a step toward NCP reunification, none of the parties involved have confirmed this. The Sharad Pawar faction has maintained a cautious stance, with party spokesperson Clyde Crasto stating, “There is no official communication about any such discussions. We will comment only when there is something concrete to share.” The Ajit Pawar faction has similarly avoided commenting, though a senior leader, who requested anonymity, said, “Anything is possible in politics, but there are no immediate plans for reunification.”
Political observers note that the lack of official statements could be a tactical move. “Both factions may be testing the waters before making any public commitments,” said Yogendra Yadav, founder of the political organization Swaraj India. “Reunification would require concessions from both sides, and neither wants to appear weak by making the first move.”
2. Fadnavis’ Motives
The Chief Minister’s role in the meetings has raised eyebrows. While Fadnavis has not publicly addressed the discussions, his involvement suggests a strategic calculation. Some analysts believe the BJP is exploring ways to weaken the opposition ahead of the elections, either by facilitating a reunification that could consolidate anti-BJP votes or by deepening the NCP’s divisions.
“Fadnavis is a shrewd politician, and his meetings with both factions could be part of a larger game plan,” said Nitin Birmal, a Mumbai-based political commentator. “The BJP may be trying to gauge the Ajit Pawar faction’s loyalty or even explore the possibility of a post-election realignment if the current coalition becomes untenable.”
3. Ideological and Personal Hurdles
Even if both factions are open to reunification, significant obstacles remain. The 2023 split was not just about power but also about ideology. The Ajit Pawar faction has embraced a more pro-BJP stance, supporting policies like the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and the abrogation of Article 370, which the Sharad Pawar faction has opposed. Reconciling these differences would require delicate negotiations.
Personal animosity between Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar has also complicated matters. Sharad Pawar has publicly criticized his nephew’s decision to ally with the BJP, calling it a “betrayal of the party’s principles.” Ajit Pawar, in turn, has accused his uncle of nepotism, particularly in promoting Supriya Sule’s political career. Bridging this divide would require significant concessions from both sides.
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What to Watch Next
The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the NCP’s reunification is a realistic possibility or merely a speculative sideshow. Here are the key developments to monitor:
1. Official Statements
Any public comments from Sharad Pawar, Ajit Pawar, or Fadnavis will be closely scrutinized for hints about the meetings’ outcomes. A joint statement from the two NCP factions, even if non-committal, would signal a thaw in relations. Conversely, continued silence or contradictory statements could indicate that the discussions were inconclusive.
2. Legal Developments
The Election Commission of India’s ruling on the NCP’s name and symbol dispute is expected in the coming months. A reunification could render the case moot, but if the factions remain divided, the ECI’s decision could force one group to adopt a new identity, complicating their electoral prospects.
3. Legislative Maneuvering
The Maharashtra assembly’s monsoon session, scheduled to begin in July, will provide an opportunity to observe the dynamics between the BJP and the Ajit Pawar faction. Any signs of friction, such as disagreements over bills or cabinet expansions, could indicate that the BJP is preparing for a post-election realignment.
4. Grassroots Mobilization
Both NCP factions have been actively mobilizing their cadres ahead of the 2026 elections. The Sharad Pawar faction has launched a series of public rallies in western Maharashtra, while the Ajit Pawar group has focused on consolidating its base in the Marathwada region. Any joint appearances or coordinated campaigns by the two factions would be a strong indicator of reunification efforts.
5. Opposition Unity Talks
The Sharad Pawar faction is a key member of the INDIA alliance, and its reunification with the Ajit Pawar group could influence the opposition’s broader strategy. If the two factions reconcile, it could strengthen the INDIA alliance’s position in Maharashtra, potentially leading to a more coordinated anti-BJP campaign in the 2026 elections.
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Conclusion
The meetings between Devendra Fadnavis and the two NCP factions have injected fresh uncertainty into Maharashtra’s political landscape. While the prospect of reunification remains speculative, the discussions underscore the fluidity of alliances in the state and the high stakes ahead of the 2026 assembly elections. For the BJP, the meetings could be a strategic move to either consolidate its coalition or prepare
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Story synopsis gathered from: Times of India – Top Stories — source.
