Breaking India’s Strategic Dilemma: Congress Warns of Pakistan’s Rising West Asia Influence as New Delhi’s Regional Clout Faces Test

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NEW DELHI — India’s opposition Congress party has issued a stark warning over Pakistan’s deepening engagement in West Asia, framing it as a direct challenge to New Delhi’s long-standing influence in the region and a potential failure of the government’s foreign policy vision. In a statement released on Tuesday, the party urged the Centre to adopt a more assertive diplomatic strategy to counter Islamabad’s growing partnerships with key West Asian nations, including Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The Congress’s intervention comes amid heightened geopolitical tensions in West Asia, where recent escalations between Israel and Iran have further destabilized the region. The party’s concerns center on Pakistan’s expanding military cooperation with Turkey—including joint defense production and naval exercises—and its strengthening economic ties with Gulf states, which have traditionally been India’s strategic and energy partners. Congress leaders argue that these developments could erode India’s competitive edge in a region critical to its energy security, diaspora interests, and geopolitical ambitions.

“Pakistan’s expanding footprint in West Asia is not just a setback for India but also raises serious questions about the effectiveness of the government’s ‘Vishwa Guru’ (global leader) narrative,” a Congress spokesperson said. The party called for a comprehensive reassessment of India’s foreign policy approach, demanding greater transparency from the government on its strategy to protect Indian citizens, businesses, and energy supplies in the region.

What Happened: Pakistan’s West Asia Push and India’s Response

The Congress’s statement follows a series of high-profile moves by Pakistan to deepen its engagement in West Asia, particularly in the defense and economic spheres. Key developments include:

1. Military Cooperation with Turkey
Pakistan and Turkey have significantly expanded their defense ties in recent years, with Islamabad emerging as a major buyer of Turkish military hardware. In 2025, the two countries signed a $1.5 billion deal for the joint production of corvettes under Turkey’s MILGEM project, a move that analysts say could position Pakistan as a regional hub for Turkish defense exports. Additionally, the Pakistan Navy has participated in joint exercises with the Turkish Navy in the Mediterranean and Arabian Seas, signaling a strategic alignment that extends beyond traditional arms sales.

Turkey’s growing influence in West Asia—particularly its support for Qatar during the 2017 Gulf blockade and its role in Libya’s civil conflict—has provided Pakistan with a powerful ally in a region where India has historically enjoyed primacy. Congress leaders argue that this partnership could complicate India’s efforts to maintain its own defense and counterterrorism collaborations with Gulf states, particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

2. Economic Ties with Gulf States
Pakistan has also made inroads into the Gulf’s economic landscape. In 2025, Saudi Arabia announced a $10 billion investment in Pakistan’s energy and infrastructure sectors, including a commitment to develop the Reko Diq copper-gold project, one of the world’s largest untapped mineral deposits. The UAE, meanwhile, has deepened its trade and investment ties with Islamabad, with bilateral trade exceeding $12 billion in 2025—a 20% increase from the previous year.

These economic engagements come at a time when India’s own trade with the Gulf has faced headwinds. While India remains the GCC’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade valued at over $180 billion in 2025, concerns have emerged over delays in the implementation of the India-GCC Free Trade Agreement (FTA), which has been under negotiation since 2006. Congress leaders have seized on these developments to argue that Pakistan is exploiting gaps in India’s regional strategy.

3. Diplomatic Outreach to Iran
Pakistan has also sought to strengthen its ties with Iran, a country with which India’s relationship has been strained due to New Delhi’s balancing act between Tehran and Washington. In 2025, Pakistan and Iran inaugurated the first phase of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline, a project that had been stalled for over a decade due to U.S. sanctions. While India had previously expressed interest in the pipeline, it withdrew from the project in 2018, citing security concerns and U.S. pressure. Congress leaders have pointed to this as an example of India’s missed opportunities in the region.

Why It Matters: India’s Strategic Interests at Stake

West Asia is a critical region for India’s economic, energy, and security interests. The Congress’s warning highlights several key areas where Pakistan’s growing influence could pose challenges:

1. Energy Security
India imports nearly 85% of its crude oil, with over 60% of its supplies coming from the Gulf. Any disruption in these energy flows—whether due to geopolitical tensions or shifting alliances—could have severe economic consequences. Pakistan’s deepening ties with Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, could give Islamabad leverage in regional energy markets, potentially complicating India’s efforts to secure stable and affordable oil supplies.

2. Diaspora and Remittances
Over 9 million Indian expatriates live and work in the Gulf, contributing nearly $50 billion in annual remittances—equivalent to about 3% of India’s GDP. The safety and economic well-being of this diaspora are a key concern for New Delhi. Congress leaders have warned that Pakistan’s growing influence could embolden groups hostile to India, potentially putting Indian workers at risk. The party has also raised concerns about the UAE’s recent decision to grant long-term visas to Pakistani professionals, which could intensify competition for jobs in the Gulf’s labor market.

3. Counterterrorism and Security
India has long relied on its partnerships with Gulf states to counter terrorism and extremism. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have cooperated with India on intelligence-sharing and the extradition of wanted terrorists, including those linked to the 2008 Mumbai attacks. However, Pakistan’s expanding ties with these countries could complicate such collaborations. For instance, Turkey’s support for Pakistan on the Kashmir issue—including its criticism of India’s 2019 revocation of Article 370—has already strained Ankara’s relations with New Delhi. If Gulf states begin to adopt a more Pakistan-friendly stance, India’s counterterrorism efforts could face new obstacles.

4. Geopolitical Competition
The Congress’s statement reflects broader anxieties about India’s ability to maintain its influence in a region where China and Turkey are emerging as key players. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has already made significant inroads in the Gulf, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE joining the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as third-party partners. Turkey, meanwhile, has positioned itself as a mediator in regional conflicts, including the Israel-Palestine dispute, further sidelining India’s traditional role as a neutral arbiter.

The Congress’s critique of the government’s “Vishwa Guru” narrative underscores the gap between India’s global ambitions and its ability to secure its interests in its immediate neighborhood and extended region. If Pakistan continues to gain ground in West Asia, New Delhi may find itself forced to adopt a more reactive foreign policy, rather than the proactive leadership role it has sought to project.

Background and Context: India’s West Asia Policy Under Scrutiny

India’s engagement with West Asia has historically been defined by three pillars: energy security, diaspora welfare, and strategic autonomy. Under successive governments, New Delhi has sought to balance its relationships with rival blocs in the region, including the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Iran, and Israel. However, the Congress’s statement suggests that this balancing act may be growing increasingly difficult in the face of Pakistan’s assertive diplomacy.

1. India’s Traditional Strengths in the Gulf
India’s ties with the Gulf have deep historical roots, dating back to the pre-independence era. Today, the GCC is India’s largest regional trading partner, with bilateral trade exceeding $180 billion in 2025. The UAE and Saudi Arabia are also key investors in India’s infrastructure and energy sectors, with the UAE committing $75 billion to India’s sovereign wealth fund in 2024.

India’s soft power in the region is equally significant. Bollywood, Indian cuisine, and the large Indian diaspora have fostered strong cultural ties, while Gulf states have increasingly looked to India as a partner in counterterrorism and defense. In 2023, India and the UAE signed a landmark Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which has boosted bilateral trade by over 20% in the past two years.

2. Pakistan’s Historical Limitations
Until recently, Pakistan’s influence in West Asia was limited by its economic instability and its close ties to Saudi Arabia, which often came with strings attached. However, Islamabad’s recent diplomatic and economic overtures have been more successful, thanks in part to its strategic alignment with Turkey and its willingness to engage with Iran. Pakistan’s decision to join the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has also given it greater leverage in its dealings with Gulf states, which are eager to tap into China’s vast market.

3. The Government’s “Vishwa Guru” Narrative
The Congress’s criticism of the “Vishwa Guru” narrative refers to the current government’s efforts to position India as a global leader, particularly in the Global South. This vision has included high-profile diplomatic initiatives, such as the International Solar Alliance and the Global Biofuels Alliance, as well as India’s leadership in the G20 during its 2023 presidency.

However, the Congress argues that this narrative is being undermined by India’s inability to counter Pakistan’s growing influence in West Asia. The party has pointed to the government’s failure to finalize the India-GCC FTA and its strained relations with Iran as examples of missed opportunities. The Congress has also criticized the government’s handling of the Israel-Palestine conflict, arguing that India’s perceived tilt toward Israel has alienated some Gulf states.

Competing Claims and Uncertainty: What the Government Says—and Doesn’t Say

The government has yet to respond directly to the Congress’s allegations, but its actions in recent months suggest a cautious approach to the shifting dynamics in West Asia. Key points of contention include:

1. The Government’s Silence on Pakistan’s Influence
While the Congress has framed Pakistan’s West Asia engagements as a strategic setback, the government has avoided publicly addressing the issue. This silence may reflect a desire to avoid escalating tensions with Islamabad or a belief that India’s long-term relationships with Gulf states are too strong to be disrupted by Pakistan’s overtures.

However, some analysts argue that the government’s reluctance to engage with the Congress’s critique could also indicate a lack of a coherent strategy. “The government’s foreign policy has often been reactive rather than proactive,” said Sushant Sareen, a senior fellow at the Observer Research Foundation. “If India wants to maintain its influence in West Asia, it needs to articulate a clear vision for the region—not just in terms of energy and trade, but also in terms of security and counterterrorism.”

2. The India-GCC FTA: A Stalled Opportunity?
One of the Congress’s key criticisms is the government’s failure to finalize the India-GCC Free Trade Agreement. Negotiations for the FTA have been ongoing since 2006, with little progress in recent years. While the government has cited “complex issues” as the reason for the delay, critics argue that India’s protectionist trade policies—particularly in sectors like agriculture and services—have made it difficult to reach a deal.

The UAE’s recent decision to grant long-term visas to Pakistani professionals has added to concerns that India is losing ground in the Gulf’s labor market. “The GCC is looking for partners who can provide not just energy and trade, but also skilled labor and investment opportunities,” said Kabir Taneja, a fellow at the Observer Research Foundation. “If India can’t deliver on these fronts, Pakistan and other countries will step in to fill the gap.”

3. The Iran Factor: A Missed Opportunity?
India’s relationship with Iran has been a point of contention in its West Asia policy. While New Delhi has sought to maintain

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Story synopsis gathered from: The Hindu – National — source.

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