Aid organizations and meteorological agencies are warning that a record-breaking El Niño weather pattern is poised to trigger devastating floods, crop destruction, and food shortages across East Africa and South Asia in the coming months. The United Nations and regional governments have declared states of emergency in high-risk areas, as climate scientists warn that the phenomenon’s intensity—comparable to the catastrophic 1997-98 El Niño—could be amplified by climate change, exacerbating humanitarian crises in some of the world’s most vulnerable regions.
What Happened
The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) confirmed this week that the current El Niño event has reached “exceptional” strength, with sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific surging to levels not observed since the 1997-98 season. That event caused an estimated $96 billion in global economic losses, displaced millions, and resulted in thousands of deaths from flooding, landslides, and disease outbreaks.
In East Africa, meteorological agencies project above-average rainfall through September, particularly in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya—regions already struggling with the aftermath of a prolonged drought. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has warned that excessive precipitation could inundate farmland, destroy staple crops, and displace communities still recovering from last year’s failed harvests. Somalia’s government has declared a state of emergency, citing acute risks of riverine flooding along the Jubba and Shabelle basins, where over 1.2 million people are at immediate risk.
In South and Southeast Asia, the threat is twofold: erratic monsoon patterns and heightened cyclonic activity. India’s Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts a 30% increase in rainfall over the western coast and central plains during August, raising concerns about landslides in Maharashtra and Karnataka. Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has pre-positioned relief supplies in Sindh and Balochistan, anticipating flash floods in low-lying areas that could affect up to 5 million people.
The World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that 22 million people across the affected regions are already food-insecure, a figure that could rise sharply if flooding disrupts supply chains or destroys standing crops. “El Niño doesn’t just bring water—it brings chaos,” said WFP spokesperson Tomson Phiri. “We’re preparing for the worst, but our resources are stretched thin.”
Why It Matters
The impending El Niño crisis arrives at a precarious moment for the affected regions. Many countries are still grappling with the economic and agricultural fallout of the 2023-24 drought cycle, which depleted grain reserves, decimated livestock herds, and pushed millions into acute food insecurity. The compounding effects of back-to-back climate shocks—first drought, now flooding—threaten to deepen poverty, trigger mass displacement, and strain already overburdened humanitarian systems.
Climate scientists emphasize that while El Niño is a natural cyclical phenomenon, its impacts are being intensified by anthropogenic climate change. Rising global temperatures increase atmospheric moisture retention, leading to more extreme rainfall events. A 2025 study published in Nature Climate Change found that the frequency of “strong” El Niño events has doubled since the 1950s, with models projecting further increases in severity under current warming trajectories.
The humanitarian response faces significant challenges. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) has launched a $50 million appeal to fund early-warning systems and emergency shelters, but funding gaps remain substantial. Donor fatigue—exacerbated by a surge in climate-related disasters in recent years—could further hinder relief efforts. The WFP has already warned that its emergency food stocks in the Horn of Africa are at critically low levels, with only 40% of required funding secured for the next six months.
Background and Context
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a periodic climate phenomenon characterized by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which disrupts global weather patterns. During El Niño events, trade winds weaken, leading to shifts in rainfall distribution that can cause droughts in some regions (such as Australia and Southeast Asia) and excessive rainfall in others (including East Africa and parts of South America).
The 1997-98 El Niño remains the most destructive on record, causing an estimated 23,000 deaths worldwide and displacing over 6 million people. In Somalia alone, flooding along the Jubba and Shabelle rivers killed more than 2,000 people and destroyed 80% of the country’s agricultural output. The current El Niño is exhibiting similar oceanic temperature anomalies, with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reporting that sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region have reached +2.3°C above average—surpassing the 1997-98 peak of +2.2°C.
The humanitarian landscape in East Africa and South Asia has evolved since the late 1990s, but vulnerabilities persist. Rapid urbanization in cities like Nairobi, Karachi, and Dhaka has led to the proliferation of informal settlements in flood-prone areas, while deforestation and poor land-use planning have increased landslide risks in rural regions. Infrastructure deficits—such as inadequate drainage systems and poorly maintained river embankments—further heighten exposure to climate shocks.
Competing Claims and Uncertainty
While meteorological agencies agree on the broad trajectory of the current El Niño, there is some divergence in projections regarding its localized impacts. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) predicts that East Africa will experience the most severe flooding, with rainfall anomalies exceeding 150% of the seasonal average in parts of Somalia and Ethiopia. However, the UK Met Office cautions that the timing and intensity of rainfall could shift, particularly if tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean alter atmospheric circulation patterns.
In South Asia, the IMD has warned of a “high probability” of above-normal monsoon rainfall, but some independent climate researchers argue that the interaction between El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)—a separate climate phenomenon—could mitigate or exacerbate flooding risks. A positive IOD phase, which is currently developing, typically enhances rainfall over the Indian subcontinent, but its precise effects remain difficult to predict.
Humanitarian agencies are also grappling with uncertainty over funding and logistical constraints. The IFRC has stated that its $50 million appeal is “a drop in the bucket” compared to the projected needs, while the WFP has warned that pre-positioned food supplies may be insufficient if flooding disrupts transportation networks. Some governments in the region have accused international donors of deprioritizing climate-related disasters in favor of geopolitical crises, though donor agencies counter that funding shortfalls reflect broader budgetary pressures.
What to Watch Next
1. Flooding and Displacement Timelines – The most immediate threat is riverine flooding in Somalia and Ethiopia, where rainfall is expected to peak in late July and August. Authorities in Kenya and Uganda are monitoring lake levels, particularly around Lake Victoria, where rising waters could displace tens of thousands of people.
2. Agricultural Impact – The next planting season in East Africa begins in September. If flooding destroys crops or delays sowing, food prices could spike in early 2027, exacerbating malnutrition rates. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has warned that staple crops like maize and sorghum are particularly vulnerable to waterlogging.
3. Cyclone Activity in the Indian Ocean – The IMD has predicted an above-average cyclone season in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, which could bring additional rainfall to India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. Cyclone Mocha, which struck Myanmar in May 2023, demonstrated the destructive potential of such storms, killing over 140 people and displacing 1.5 million.
4. Humanitarian Funding and Response – The UN’s Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) has allocated $20 million for early action in Somalia and Pakistan, but aid groups say at least $200 million is needed to scale up preparedness efforts. Donor conferences scheduled for August will be critical in determining whether relief operations can be adequately funded.
5. Long-Term Climate Adaptation – The current crisis has reignited debates over climate adaptation funding. The African Union has called for a dedicated “loss and damage” fund to support countries bearing the brunt of climate disasters, while the World Bank has urged governments to invest in resilient infrastructure. However, progress on these initiatives remains slow.
Conclusion
The record-strength El Niño now unfolding in the Pacific threatens to unleash a cascade of humanitarian crises across East Africa and South Asia, with flooding, food shortages, and displacement poised to affect tens of millions of people. While governments and aid agencies are scrambling to prepare, the scale of the challenge is immense—compounded by climate change, funding shortfalls, and pre-existing vulnerabilities.
The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether early warnings translate into effective action. If flooding materializes as projected, the human and economic toll could rival that of the 1997-98 disaster, underscoring the urgent need for both immediate relief and long-term climate resilience strategies. For now, the message from humanitarian organizations is clear: the worst may be yet to come.
Story synopsis gathered from: [Al Jazeera News](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/14/record-el-nino-threatens-to-unleash-floods-across-east-africa-and-asia?traffic_source=rss) — source.
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Story synopsis gathered from: Al Jazeera News — source.
