The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned on Tuesday that a “strong” El Nino is likely to develop during the June‑September period, a development that could deepen the shortfall in India’s summer monsoon rains. The agency’s seasonal outlook, released ahead of the monsoon onset, cites unusually warm sea‑surface‑temperature anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific as the primary driver of the anticipated El Nino, which climate models project will intensify through August. If the forecast materialises, large swathes of the Indian subcontinent could receive below‑normal rainfall, heightening the risk of drought‑related losses for agriculture, water supplies and the broader economy.
What happened
In its June‑July 2026 seasonal outlook, the WMO predicted that the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will transition from a weak to a strong phase during the core monsoon months of June, July, August and September. The outlook notes that sea‑surface‑temperature (SST) anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific have already risen above the 0.5 °C threshold that typically signals El Nino development, and that model ensembles now show a high probability of SSTs exceeding 1.5 °C above average by August. Historically, such strong El Nino events have been linked to reduced monsoon rainfall over most of India, with the exception of the Himalayan foothills and some coastal pockets that may see isolated showers.
The WMO’s forecast follows a series of unusually warm months in the Pacific Ocean that have already contributed to a drier‑than‑average monsoon in parts of South Asia earlier this year. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) echoed the WMO’s concerns, stating that a strong El Nino “historically correlates with a weaker monsoon over the Indian subcontinent.”
Why it matters
India’s agrarian economy remains heavily dependent on the summer monsoon, which delivers roughly 70 % of the nation’s annual rainfall and underpins sowing of staple crops such as rice, wheat, cotton and pulses. A monsoon deficit can trigger a cascade of impacts: reduced crop yields, higher food prices, stress on groundwater and reservoir levels, and increased demand for government relief measures.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare has previously outlined contingency plans that include enhanced water‑conservation measures, targeted cash assistance and expanded crop‑insurance coverage. However, officials have not yet detailed any new actions in response to the latest WMO outlook. Market analysts have already flagged the forecast as a potential driver of volatility in agricultural commodity prices, both domestically and in export markets that rely on Indian output.
Background and context
El Nino is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by the periodic warming of SSTs in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The phenomenon influences global atmospheric circulation, often altering rainfall patterns far from its origin. In the Indian context, strong El Nino events have been associated with monsoon deficits in 1982, 1997, 2002 and 2015, each of which required extensive government intervention to mitigate crop losses.
The 2026 monsoon season follows a year of mixed signals. While the IMD’s pre‑monsoon outlook in May projected near‑average rainfall for the country as a whole, early June observations showed below‑normal precipitation over the central and western peninsular regions. Simultaneously, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remained neutral, removing a potential counterbalancing influence that can sometimes offset El Nino‑related drying.
Competing claims and uncertainty
The relationship between El Nino and the Indian monsoon is not deterministic. A climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, speaking on condition of anonymity, cautioned that “El Nino is a complex climate pattern, and its impact on the Indian monsoon can vary depending on other atmospheric conditions.” The scientist highlighted the role of intra‑seasonal oscillations, the Madden‑Julian Oscillation, and regional land‑surface feedbacks, all of which can modulate rainfall outcomes.
Some forecasters point to recent model upgrades that improve the representation of tropical convection, suggesting a higher confidence level in the current forecast. Others note that the WMO’s outlook is based on a consensus of multiple global climate models, each with its own biases. The IMD, while acknowledging the historical correlation, has not quantified the probability of a monsoon deficit for 2026, leaving room for divergent interpretations among policymakers and market participants.
What to watch next
1. IMD’s monsoon forecast updates – The IMD is scheduled to issue its first monsoon outlook on June 30 and a revised outlook on July 15. These releases will incorporate the latest SST data, atmospheric observations and model runs, providing a more granular view of expected rainfall distribution.
2. Government policy announcements – The Ministry of Agriculture is expected to convene a high‑level meeting on drought preparedness in early July. Any new relief packages, changes to the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (crop‑insurance scheme) or water‑allocation directives will be closely monitored.
3. Ground observations – Satellite‑derived precipitation estimates from the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) and ground‑based rain gauge networks will offer real‑time verification of the forecast. A sustained deficit in the first two weeks of July could trigger early activation of contingency measures.
4. Market signals – Futures prices for rice, wheat and cotton on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) often react to monsoon expectations. A widening spread between current prices and historical averages may signal growing concern among traders.
Conclusion
The WMO’s warning of a strong El Nino underscores the vulnerability of India’s monsoon‑dependent economy to global climate fluctuations. While historical patterns suggest a heightened risk of below‑normal rainfall, the precise magnitude of the deficit remains uncertain, hinging on a suite of atmospheric variables that can amplify or dampen El Nino’s influence. As the monsoon season approaches, the Indian Meteorological Department’s forthcoming outlooks, government preparedness measures and real‑time rainfall observations will be critical in shaping the nation’s response. Stakeholders—from farmers and water managers to policymakers and market participants—must remain vigilant, balancing immediate relief actions with longer‑term strategies to enhance climate resilience, such as expanding irrigation infrastructure, promoting drought‑tolerant crop varieties and strengthening early‑warning systems.
Sources
– Indian Express, “WMO warns strong El Nino to intensify India monsoon deficit in July,” June 25 2026, https://indianexpress.com/article/india/wmo-warns-strong-el-nino-intensify-india-monsoon-deficit-july-10770156/
Story synopsis gathered from: Indian Express – India — source
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