NEW DELHI — India has formally launched its campaign for a non-permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) for the 2028-29 term, a move that underscores its ambitions to shape global governance amid rising geopolitical tensions and calls for institutional reform. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar announced the bid on Monday, framing it as part of India’s broader effort to amplify the “voice of the Global South” in multilateral forums. The election, scheduled for June 2027, will pit India against Tajikistan for the sole Asia-Pacific Group seat, marking a rare competitive race within the regional bloc.
The campaign arrives at a critical juncture for the UN, where debates over the Security Council’s structure, effectiveness, and legitimacy have intensified. India’s bid is not merely procedural; it reflects a calculated effort to leverage its growing economic and diplomatic clout to secure a platform for influencing decisions on global security, climate action, and emerging technologies. However, the contest with Tajikistan introduces an unexpected variable, forcing India to navigate a more complex diplomatic landscape than in previous uncontested bids.
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What Happened
On Monday, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar officially launched India’s campaign for a non-permanent seat on the UNSC for the 2028-29 term. The announcement was made in a statement that emphasized India’s “long-standing commitment to multilateralism” and its role as a bridge between developed and developing nations. The elections, which will take place in June 2027, will see India compete against Tajikistan for the Asia-Pacific Group’s single seat—a departure from the region’s usual practice of endorsing a consensus candidate.
The Asia-Pacific Group, one of five regional blocs at the UN, typically coordinates to avoid competitive races by selecting a single candidate through internal negotiations. However, the simultaneous bids by India and Tajikistan suggest a breakdown in this consensus, requiring both nations to secure a two-thirds majority (128 votes) in the 193-member UN General Assembly. This dynamic mirrors the 2019 election, when Afghanistan withdrew its candidacy in favor of India, allowing New Delhi to secure the seat uncontested.
India has served on the UNSC eight times previously, most recently during the 2021-22 term, where it held the presidency in August 2021 and December 2022. Its past terms have been marked by efforts to highlight issues such as counterterrorism, maritime security, and equitable access to vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic. The 2028-29 term would place India on the Council during a period of heightened global instability, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, escalating tensions in the Middle East, and rising concerns over climate-induced conflicts and artificial intelligence governance.
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Why It Matters
India’s bid for the UNSC seat is significant for three key reasons: its implications for global governance reform, its reflection of shifting power dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region, and its potential to shape India’s diplomatic leverage in an era of multipolar competition.
# 1. Reforming the UN Security Council
The UNSC’s structure—with five permanent members (P5) wielding veto power—has long been criticized as anachronistic, failing to reflect contemporary geopolitical realities. India, alongside Brazil, Germany, and Japan (the G4), has been a vocal advocate for expanding permanent membership to include representatives from the Global South. A successful bid for the 2028-29 term would provide India with a platform to advance this agenda, particularly as debates over UN reform gain traction amid frustrations with the Council’s paralysis on issues like the Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Jaishankar’s statement explicitly linked India’s campaign to its push for “reformed multilateralism,” a term that has become central to New Delhi’s foreign policy discourse. The 2028-29 term could coincide with renewed efforts to overhaul the UNSC, including proposals to limit the use of the veto or expand the Council’s membership. India’s presence on the Council during this period would allow it to shape these discussions from within, rather than as an outsider advocating for change.
# 2. Asia-Pacific Diplomacy in Flux
The competitive race with Tajikistan signals a potential shift in the Asia-Pacific Group’s dynamics. Historically, the region has avoided contested elections by rallying behind a single candidate, often through backchannel negotiations. The fact that Tajikistan has chosen to challenge India—despite New Delhi’s overwhelming diplomatic and economic influence—suggests either a miscalculation by Dushanbe or a deliberate strategy to test India’s regional dominance.
Tajikistan, a Central Asian nation with close ties to Russia and China, has not previously served on the UNSC. Its bid may reflect broader geopolitical maneuvering, particularly as China seeks to expand its influence in Central Asia through initiatives like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). While Tajikistan’s chances of securing the seat are slim—given India’s stronger diplomatic network and financial contributions to the UN—its decision to contest the election could force India to invest more resources in lobbying, particularly among smaller UN member states.
# 3. India’s Global Ambitions and Strategic Alliances
India’s campaign comes at a time when its foreign policy is increasingly defined by a balancing act between major powers. On one hand, New Delhi has deepened its strategic partnership with the United States, including through the Quad alliance (alongside Japan and Australia) and defense agreements like the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA). On the other, it maintains close ties with Russia, its largest arms supplier, and has avoided condemning Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine—a stance that has drawn criticism from Western nations.
A seat on the UNSC would provide India with a platform to navigate these competing alliances while advancing its own interests. For instance, India could use its position to push for resolutions on issues like terrorism (a long-standing priority given its tensions with Pakistan) or climate security, where it has advocated for differentiated responsibilities between developed and developing nations. The 2028-29 term would also overlap with India’s potential presidency of the G20 in 2028, offering an opportunity to align its agendas across multiple global forums.
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Background and Context
# India’s UNSC History
India has been a non-permanent member of the UNSC eight times since the UN’s founding in 1945, with its most recent term in 2021-22. Its past stints on the Council have been marked by efforts to highlight issues of global relevance, including:
– Counterterrorism: India has consistently pushed for stronger international action against terrorist groups, particularly in the aftermath of the 2008 Mumbai attacks and the 2019 Pulwama attack.
– Peacekeeping: India is one of the largest contributors to UN peacekeeping missions, with over 200,000 troops deployed since 1948. During its 2021-22 term, it emphasized the need for better training and resources for peacekeepers.
– Reformed Multilateralism: India has been a leading voice in calls to expand the UNSC’s permanent membership, arguing that the current structure is outdated and unrepresentative. Its 2021-22 term saw it co-sponsor a resolution on “equitable representation and increase in the membership of the Security Council.”
# The Asia-Pacific Group’s Dynamics
The Asia-Pacific Group, which includes 53 UN member states, has traditionally operated on the principle of consensus, avoiding competitive elections by endorsing a single candidate. This practice has benefited India in the past, most notably in 2019 when Afghanistan withdrew its bid, allowing India to secure the seat uncontested. However, the group’s unity has occasionally been tested, such as in 2014 when Saudi Arabia rejected its elected seat in protest over the Council’s inaction on the Syria conflict.
Tajikistan’s decision to challenge India breaks with this tradition and may reflect broader geopolitical tensions. While Tajikistan is not a major player in global diplomacy, its bid could be seen as an attempt to gain visibility or extract concessions from India or other regional powers. Alternatively, it may be acting at the behest of larger powers—such as China or Russia—seeking to complicate India’s diplomatic efforts.
# Global Challenges During the 2028-29 Term
The 2028-29 term will place India on the UNSC during a period of unprecedented global instability. Key issues likely to dominate the Council’s agenda include:
– Ongoing Conflicts: The war in Ukraine is expected to continue, with potential escalations or negotiations shaping the Council’s work. Similarly, tensions in the Middle East—particularly between Israel and Iran-backed groups—could flare into broader conflicts.
– Climate Security: The UN has increasingly framed climate change as a security threat, with the Council holding debates on its impact on conflict and migration. India, as a major developing economy, could play a key role in shaping these discussions.
– Artificial Intelligence and Emerging Technologies: The Council has begun exploring the security implications of AI, including its use in warfare and disinformation. India’s growing tech sector and its leadership in the Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligence (GPAI) could position it as a key voice in these debates.
– UN Reform: The 2028-29 term may see renewed efforts to reform the UNSC, including proposals to expand permanent membership or limit the veto power. India’s presence on the Council would allow it to influence these discussions directly.
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Competing Claims and Uncertainty
While India’s bid is widely seen as the frontrunner, several uncertainties could shape the outcome of the election:
# 1. Tajikistan’s Motivations and Strategy
Tajikistan’s decision to contest the seat remains puzzling to many observers. The country lacks India’s diplomatic reach, financial resources, and global influence, making its bid a long shot. Possible explanations include:
– Symbolic Protest: Tajikistan may be signaling its dissatisfaction with the Asia-Pacific Group’s consensus-based approach, which has historically favored larger nations like India and Japan.
– Geopolitical Leverage: The bid could be a bargaining chip to extract concessions from India or other regional powers, such as increased aid or investment.
– External Influence: Tajikistan’s close ties with Russia and China could suggest that its bid is part of a broader strategy by these powers to challenge India’s regional dominance. However, there is no public evidence to support this claim.
# 2. India’s Diplomatic Challenges
While India has a strong track record of securing UNSC seats, the competitive nature of this election introduces new challenges:
– Lobbying Efforts: India will need to actively court votes from smaller UN member states, particularly in Africa and Latin America, where it has historically enjoyed strong support. This could require increased financial commitments to UN programs or bilateral aid.
– Balancing Alliances: India’s relationships with major powers—particularly the U.S., Russia, and China—could complicate its campaign. For instance, its neutral stance on the Ukraine war has drawn criticism from Western nations, while its participation in the Quad has irked China.
– Domestic Priorities: India’s focus on economic growth and domestic issues could limit its ability to devote resources to the campaign. However, the government has signaled that the UNSC bid is a priority, with Jaishankar’s statement framing it as central to India’s global ambitions.
# 3. The Role of the Asia-Pacific Group
The Asia-Pacific Group’s ability to broker a consensus before the election remains uncertain. While the group has historically avoided competitive races, Tajikistan’s bid suggests that this tradition may be weakening. Key factors to watch include:
– Internal Negotiations: The group’s members may attempt to mediate between India and Tajikistan, potentially offering incentives for one side to withdraw. However, given India’s stronger position, Tajikistan may be reluctant to back down without significant concessions.
– Regional Rivalries: The election could exacerbate tensions between India and China, which has previously
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Story synopsis gathered from: The Hindu – National — source.
