New Delhi — The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued a seasonal outlook on Tuesday warning that a rapid development of an El Niño weather pattern is likely between July and September. The agency says the strengthening El Niño could intensify heatwaves, droughts and other extreme weather worldwide, including across the Indian subcontinent, where the monsoon already shows a severe shortfall.
What happened
The WMO’s bulletin, released ahead of the peak monsoon months, notes that the projected El Niño will “suppress the Indian monsoon” and add to an existing rainfall deficit. India’s own meteorological data for June 2026 recorded rainfall that was 40 percent below the long‑term average. The shortfall has delayed sowing of the kharif (summer) crops, and the Ministry of Agriculture estimates that the reduced monsoon could cut the total cropped area by about 23 percent, with the greatest impact on rain‑fed farms.
Why it matters
A weakened monsoon combined with a strong El Niño raises the risk of prolonged dry periods, heat extremes and drought conditions across large parts of the country. The kharif season, which relies heavily on timely monsoon rains, is critical for staple crops such as rice, maize and sorghum. A 23 percent reduction in cropped area would threaten food‑grain supplies, especially in central and eastern India where rain‑fed agriculture dominates. The timing of the El Niño peak coincides with the crucial growth phase of many kharif crops, narrowing the window for corrective action.
Background and context
El Niño is a climate phenomenon that originates in the tropical Pacific Ocean and influences weather patterns worldwide. Historically, strong El Niño events have been linked to weaker monsoon rains over the Indian subcontinent, higher temperatures and increased incidence of drought. The WMO’s seasonal outlook is part of its regular climate monitoring, aimed at providing governments and stakeholders with advance warning of potential climate risks.
India’s monsoon season, which runs from June to September, typically delivers 70–80 percent of the country’s annual rainfall. In June 2026, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported a 40 percent deficit compared with the climatological average, an unusually large shortfall that has already disrupted kharif sowing schedules. The Ministry of Agriculture’s estimate of a 23 percent cut in total cropped area reflects the combined effect of delayed sowing and anticipated monsoon suppression.
Competing claims or uncertainty
The WMO’s forecast is based on climate models that project a rapid El Niño development during the July‑September window. While the agency states that “El Niño typically leads to a weakened monsoon over India,” it does not quantify the exact magnitude of the expected rainfall reduction for 2026. Indian officials have not yet released an official monsoon forecast for the remainder of the season, leaving a gap between the WMO’s global outlook and national projections.
Some agricultural experts caution that the 23 percent reduction in cropped area cited by the Ministry of Agriculture is an estimate that assumes a worst‑case monsoon scenario. They argue that irrigation projects, cloud‑seeding initiatives and adaptive sowing practices could mitigate part of the loss, though no concrete data on these measures have been provided. Conversely, climate scientists point to the “rapid development” language in the WMO bulletin as an indication that the El Niño could intensify faster than typical, potentially outpacing any short‑term mitigation efforts.
What to watch next
1. Official monsoon forecast – The IMD is expected to issue its seasonal monsoon outlook within the next week. Comparison of the IMD’s rainfall projections with the WMO’s El Niño scenario will clarify the likely extent of monsoon suppression.
2. Government mitigation measures – The Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Water Resources are likely to announce emergency irrigation schemes, crop‑insurance extensions and distribution of drought‑resilient seed varieties. Tracking these announcements will indicate how quickly policymakers are responding to the forecast.
3. Agricultural market signals – Prices of rice, maize and other kharif staples on major Indian commodity exchanges may rise if traders anticipate a shortfall, providing an early market‑based gauge of perceived risk.
4. Regional climate monitoring – State meteorological departments, particularly in rain‑fed districts of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Odisha, will release localized rainfall data. Divergence between regional and national trends could affect state‑level crop‑insurance payouts.
Conclusion
The WMO’s warning of a rapid El Niño development during the core monsoon months adds a layer of climate risk to an already strained Indian agriculture sector. With June 2026 showing a 40 percent rainfall deficit and the Ministry of Agriculture projecting a potential 23 percent cut in cropped area, the convergence of global and regional climate signals could jeopardize food security for millions of smallholder farmers. Close monitoring of the IMD’s monsoon outlook, government mitigation steps and on‑the‑ground rainfall data will be essential to gauge the actual impact and to shape timely policy responses.
Sources
Times of India, “WMO warns of rapid El Nino development during July‑September,” https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/wmo-warns-of-rapid-el-nino-development-during-july-september/articleshow/132170820.cms
Story synopsis gathered from: Times of India – Top Stories — source
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