FIFA is evaluating the possibility of returning the World Cup to the United States as early as 2038, a move driven by a strategic pivot toward high-yield commercial revenue streams. The consideration comes as the governing body seeks to offset a projected decline in traditional television broadcast income by leveraging the superior ticketing and hospitality infrastructure of the North American market.
The prospect of a return has gained significant visibility following public comments from Donald Trump, who stated that the tournament should return to the U.S. during his lifetime. This alignment of political interest and financial incentive suggests a growing appetite within both FIFA and U.S. leadership to establish the United States as a recurring hub for the world’s most watched sporting event.
The Financial Driver: Hospitality Over Broadcasts
The primary catalyst for FIFA’s exploration of a 2038 U.S. tournament is the evolving landscape of sports monetization. For decades, the sale of global television rights served as the bedrock of FIFA’s revenue. However, as media consumption shifts toward fragmented streaming services and digital platforms, the guaranteed windfalls from traditional broadcast deals have become more volatile.
To mitigate this risk, FIFA is increasingly prioritizing “direct-to-consumer” revenue, specifically through premium ticketing and luxury hospitality packages. The United States represents the global gold standard for this model. The American sports market possesses a corporate appetite for high-cost hospitality and a sophisticated infrastructure for luxury seating that far exceeds the capacity of most other potential host nations.
By returning to the U.S., FIFA can capitalize on a market where corporate sponsorships and high-net-worth individual spending on “VIP experiences” are maximized. This shift allows the organization to maintain its aggressive spending and operational budgets even if the global television market continues to soften.
Why It Matters: The Erosion of Global Rotation
The potential return of the World Cup to the U.S. within 12 years of the 2026 tournament marks a significant departure from FIFA’s historical commitment to the global rotation of the event. Traditionally, the World Cup has moved across continents—Asia, Africa, Europe, and the Americas—to promote the growth of the game and maintain the tournament’s status as a truly global celebration.
A move to return to the U.S. so quickly suggests that commercial certainty is beginning to outweigh the geopolitical objective of global expansion. If the 2038 tournament is awarded to the U.S., it would signal to other bidding nations that infrastructure and revenue-generating potential are now more critical than the “rotational” logic that has governed the tournament for decades.
Analysis:
The potential for a 2038 U.S. return suggests a fundamental shift in FIFA’s prioritization of commercial certainty over the traditional rotation of the tournament across different continents. By focusing on the U.S. market—which possesses the infrastructure and corporate appetite for high-cost hospitality—FIFA can mitigate the volatility of global media rights. This strategy emphasizes the “commercialization” of the tournament, prioritizing markets where the highest immediate returns on investment are guaranteed. This move effectively transforms the World Cup from a rotating global festival into a strategic asset deployed in markets that maximize short-term liquidity.
Background and Context: The North American Expansion
The push for a 2038 return is built upon the foundation of the 2026 World Cup, which will be hosted jointly by the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. The 2026 event is already a milestone in the commercialization of the sport, featuring an expanded format with 48 teams, which naturally increases the number of matches and, consequently, the number of tickets and hospitality packages available for sale.
The U.S. has long been viewed by FIFA as a “sleeping giant” in terms of football (soccer) revenue. While the sport has grown in popularity across the country, the financial mechanisms used in the U.S. for the NFL and NBA—such as massive stadium-based corporate partnerships—provide a blueprint that FIFA is eager to replicate on a global scale.
Furthermore, the political climate in the U.S. has become increasingly conducive to hosting mega-events. The willingness of local governments to provide tax incentives and infrastructure support, combined with the endorsement of high-profile political figures, reduces the operational risk for FIFA.
What to Watch Next
As FIFA moves closer to making a decision on the 2038 hosting rights, several key indicators will determine the likelihood of a U.S. return:
1. 2026 Revenue Performance: The actual realized income from the 2026 tournament’s hospitality and ticketing sectors will serve as the “proof of concept.” If the margins exceed expectations, the pressure to return to the U.S. will intensify.
2. Broadcast Rights Negotiations: The outcome of the next cycle of global television rights deals will reveal exactly how much of a “gap” FIFA needs to fill. A significant drop in broadcast revenue would make the U.S. hospitality model a necessity rather than a preference.
3. Global Backlash: FIFA must balance its financial needs with its image as a global governing body. Strong opposition from confederations in Africa or Asia—who may feel sidelined by a U.S.-centric strategy—could force FIFA to maintain the rotation policy.
4. Infrastructure Evolution: The development of new, high-tech stadiums in the U.S. specifically designed for luxury hospitality will further enhance the attractiveness of the region.
Conclusion
The prospect of a 2038 World Cup in the United States is more than a matter of sporting preference; it is a calculated financial hedge. By pivoting toward a market with unparalleled corporate spending power, FIFA is attempting to insulate itself from the instabilities of the modern media landscape. While this ensures the organization’s financial dominance, it raises critical questions about the future of the World Cup as a global event. If the tournament becomes a recurring North American fixture, the “World” in World Cup may increasingly refer to the global audience watching from afar, rather than the global diversity of the hosts.
Sources:
Guardian International: https://www.theguardian.com/football/2026/jul/21/world-cup-back-usa-2038-donald-trump-fifa-football
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Story synopsis gathered from: Guardian International — source
