WASHINGTON — A new U.S. legislative proposal backed by the White House could impose tariffs of up to 100% on imports from India and China if the countries continue purchasing Russian oil, aiming to further restrict Moscow’s energy revenue amid its ongoing war in Ukraine. The bill, which could be passed before August, marks a significant escalation in Washington’s efforts to enforce secondary sanctions on nations trading with Russia.
The proposed legislation, reported by the Hindustan Times, would target crude oil and petroleum product imports from India and China, two of Russia’s largest energy buyers since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. While the U.S. and its allies have already imposed sweeping sanctions on Russian oil exports, including a price cap on seaborne crude, India and China have continued to import discounted Russian oil, redirecting global energy flows and blunting the impact of Western restrictions.
The White House has signaled support for the measure, framing it as a tool to “cripple Russia’s war machine” by cutting off critical revenue streams. However, the proposal has raised concerns among trade analysts about potential disruptions to global supply chains and diplomatic relations with key partners in Asia.
Details of the Proposal
The bill, if enacted, would authorize the U.S. government to impose tariffs equivalent to the value of Russian-origin oil imported by third countries. For example, if India imports $10 billion worth of Russian crude in a year, the U.S. could levy $10 billion in tariffs on Indian goods entering the American market. The same mechanism would apply to China, which has also significantly increased its purchases of Russian oil since 2022.
The measure is designed to close loopholes in existing sanctions, which have not prevented Moscow from earning billions in energy revenue through alternative buyers. According to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), India and China together accounted for nearly 80% of Russia’s seaborne oil exports in 2025, up from less than 20% before the war.
Potential Economic and Diplomatic Fallout
Analysts warn that the proposed tariffs could trigger retaliatory measures from India and China, further straining trade relations with the U.S. India, in particular, has sought to balance its ties with Washington and Moscow, arguing that its energy purchases are driven by economic necessity rather than political alignment. New Delhi has also resisted Western pressure to reduce imports from Russia, citing its reliance on affordable crude to fuel its growing economy.
China, meanwhile, has condemned U.S. sanctions as “economic coercion” and has repeatedly signaled its opposition to secondary sanctions targeting its trade partners. Beijing has already taken steps to insulate its economy from Western financial restrictions, including expanding the use of local currencies in trade settlements with Russia.
The bill’s timing adds another layer of complexity. With the U.S. presidential election approaching in November, the proposal could become a point of contention in an already volatile geopolitical landscape. Some lawmakers have expressed concerns that the tariffs could backfire, pushing India and China closer to Russia and undermining broader U.S. strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific.
Analysis: A High-Stakes Gamble
The proposed tariffs represent a high-risk strategy for the U.S., one that could either succeed in further isolating Russia or fracture global energy markets and alienate key partners. While the measure aligns with Washington’s long-standing goal of depriving Moscow of war funding, its effectiveness hinges on whether India and China can be coerced into compliance—or whether they will find ways to circumvent the restrictions.
For India, the tariffs could complicate its efforts to diversify energy sources while maintaining ties with both the U.S. and Russia. New Delhi has already faced criticism from Western allies for its neutral stance on the Ukraine war, and the proposed sanctions could force it to recalibrate its energy policies. However, given India’s historical resistance to external pressure, a sudden shift away from Russian oil appears unlikely.
China, on the other hand, has the economic leverage to absorb the impact of U.S. tariffs, particularly if it accelerates its push for energy self-sufficiency and deepens trade ties with non-Western partners. Beijing’s ability to redirect Russian oil through alternative markets or refine it domestically could blunt the intended effect of the sanctions.
The bill’s passage is far from guaranteed. Congressional approval would require bipartisan support, and lawmakers may hesitate to endorse a measure that could provoke retaliation from two of the world’s largest economies. Even if the bill becomes law, its enforcement could face legal and logistical challenges, particularly in tracking the origin of oil blends and verifying compliance.
Global Energy Markets on Edge
The proposal has already sent ripples through global oil markets. Benchmark crude prices rose modestly following reports of the bill, reflecting concerns about potential supply disruptions. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have warned that the tariffs could lead to higher energy costs for U.S. consumers, particularly if India and China respond by reducing exports of refined petroleum products to the West.
The measure also underscores the growing fragmentation of the global energy trade. Since the imposition of Western sanctions on Russia, oil flows have shifted dramatically, with Moscow redirecting exports to Asia and the Middle East. The proposed tariffs could accelerate this trend, further marginalizing the U.S. and Europe in the global energy landscape.
What’s Next?
The bill is expected to be introduced in the U.S. Congress in the coming weeks, with a vote possible before the August recess. If passed, the tariffs could take effect as early as September, though legal challenges and diplomatic negotiations could delay implementation.
For now, India and China have not publicly responded to the proposal. However, both countries are likely to explore alternative trade mechanisms, including increased use of local currencies and barter arrangements, to mitigate the impact of U.S. sanctions.
Story synopsis gathered from: [Hindustan Times](https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/new-us-bill-proposes-up-to-100-tariffs-on-india-for-russian-oil-purchase-imports-modi-trump-india-us-trade-deal-china-101784077143157.html) — source.
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Story synopsis gathered from: Hindustan Times – India News — source.
